John Rust is best known as one of the founding fathers of the
structural estimation of dynamic discrete choice
models[3]
and the developer of the nested fixed point (NFXP) maximum likelihood estimator which is widely used
in structural econometrics.[4]
However, he had published papers on broad range of topics including
equilibrium in the markets of durable goods,
social security, retirement, disability insurance,
nuclear power industry,
real estate economics,
rental car industry,
transportation research,
auction markets,
computational economics,
dynamic games.[5]
Education and career
John Rust was born in Wisconsin on May 23, 1955. He graduated from
Waukesha High School in 1973, completed his B.A. in mathematics in 1977 at the
University of Pennsylvania, and received his Ph.D. in economics from
Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1983.
His dissertation titled “Stationary Equilibrium in a Market for Durable Assets”
under the supervision of Daniel McFadden was published as an Econometrica article in 1985.[6]
After graduating from the University of Pennsylvania in 1977, John
Rust worked as a research analyst for Morgan Stanley in New York City for two years.
His first academic job was at the University of Wisconsin (assistant professor, 1983–1987,
associate professor, 1987–1989, and full professor, 1990–1996), after which he had professorial
positions at Yale University (1996–2001) and University of Maryland (2001–2011) before
starting his current affiliation with Georgetown University.[7]
Rust is best known for developing methods for analyzing dynamic discrete choice. In his best-known paper, he modeled the decision of Harold Zurcher, superintendent of the Madison, Wisconsin Metropolitan Bus Company, whether and when to replace the engines of buses in his fleet, and developed the nested fixed point algorithm to estimate the model using data on when the buses were replaced.[9] This paper is one of the first dynamic stochastic models of discrete choice estimated using real data, and continues to serve as classical example of the problems of this type. The methods Rust developed have been used to study dynamic economic decisions in other contexts, including retirement and occupational choice.[3]
I really do not understand the widespread antipathy towards structural econometrics. I do not see any basis for the belief that the reduced form approaches adopted by statistical modelers is more justified or legitimate (or is less subjective) than the structural econometric approach adopted by economic modelers. Both types of modelers have to impose strong assumptions, and it seems all that we can say is that these models and the underlying identifying assumptions are just different.
It really isn’t productive to criticize the status quo in economics these days, nor is it productive to try to promote the virtues of structural estimation. Criticism only encourages the practitioners to rally around the flag. I think it is equally a waste of time to try to engage in salesmanship.
Instead, in his review of "The Limits of Inference without Theory" by Kenneth Wolpin[12]
titled "The Limits of Inference with Theory"[13]
John Rust brings attention to the limits of inference inherent to any econometric approach,
and argues that collection of better data and closer cooperation between structural and the
experimental economics will lead to more useful empirical knowledge.
My main message is though there is ample room for getting far more knowledge from limited data (and even more when we have access to “big data” ) by optimally combining inductive and deductive approaches to inference and learning, it is important to recognize that there are a number of inherent limits to inference that may be insuperable. These limits were not adequately addressed in Wolpin’s book, and motivated the title of this review.
John Rust holds a stronger position on the issue of disconnect between theoretical economics and econometrics
from the real world (empirical) problems.
At the "Causality in the Social Sciences Conference" held at Stanford University on December 5–6, 2014
he gave a talk titled
""Mostly Useless Econometrics: Measuring the Causal Effect of Econometric Theory"(PDF).[permanent dead link]"[14]
where he pointed out that development of complicated econometric theories is rewarded disproportionally
to their practical usefulness.
Professional service
In 2004 John Rust co-founded the software development company Technoluddities, Inc.[15]
which operates several web-based software products widely used by the economic profession.
Technoluddities, Inc. owns trademarks to three of these services, namely Editorial Express,
Conference Maker and Head Hunter.[16]
Editorial Express
Editorial Express
is web-based editorial tracking software that can enable
"paper-free" operation of the key editorial functions of a journal.
Some of the features of this system include guaranteed low pricing, secure operations and data
encryption, electronic submission of papers and referee reports, easy assignment of editors and referees, built-in email
notification and automatic reminders, statistical functions and reporting.[17]
Editorial express is regarded by many as one of the best journal management systems.[18]
Conference Maker
is web-based software for organizing international conferences.
Conference Maker allows a program chair (or several co-chairs) and their selected program committee
to handle the submission process in a decentralized fashion. All members of the program committee can
log in at any time via secure password protected accounts and can view all submissions online.
Program committee members are assigned certain subsets of submissions (usually designated by the person making the submission, unless overwritten by program committee members) and can make accept/reject decisions by clicking a button.
There is also a simple interface for forming sessions, searching for discussants and session chairs,
posting/updating the conference program to an automatically generated web page,
and sending mass emails to arbitrarily selected subgroups of users.
Over 625 international conferences have used Conference Maker since it was introduced in 2001,
more than 150,000 submissions have been made to Conference Maker for these various
conferences and over 290,000 people worldwide have used it.[20]
Head Hunter
Head Hunter
is web-based academic recruiting software specially designed as a "back end interface" to the
EconJobMarket.org.
Some of the features of this system include paperless operation, built-in scheduling module,
easy setup, high security, electronic applications and reference letters.[21]
Head Hunter is one of the internal interfaces (or "back ends") which facilitate the
departments the work with the applications and reference letters collected by
EconJobMarket.org centralized application collection system.
The theoretical foundation for the creation of EconJobMarket.org
is described in Chapter 7 of The Handbook of Market Design.[23]
EJM does not attempt to fundamentally alter the decentralized “endogenous search and matching” process by which the economics job market currently operates. Since there is unrestricted entry of intermediaries similar to EJM and a number of for-profit and non-profit organizations are currently competing in this market, we discuss the problem of market fragmentation that can occur when too many organizations attempt to intermediate trade in the market. Contrary to conventional wisdom in industrial organization theory, we show that unrestricted entry and competition of intermediaries can result in suboptimal outcomes. We discuss conditions under which the market might be improved if there is sufficient coordination to promote information sharing, such as establishing a dominant information clearinghouse that operates as a non-profit public service — a role EJM is trying to fulfill.[24]
EconJobMarket.org grew in various significant characteristics
(number of job adds posted, number of recruiters' accounts, number of applicants' accounts,
number of applications transmitted, number of recommenders' accounts, number of recommendations transmitted)
between its inception and 2011 at an average annual rate between 79% and 194%.[24]
Selected publications
Solution and estimation of structural dynamic models
Santos, Manuel S; Rust, John (2004). "Convergence properties of policy iteration". SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization. 42 (6): 2094–2115. doi:10.1137/S0363012902399824. S2CID6989026.
Paarsch, Harry J.; Rust, John (2009). "Valuing programs with deterministic and stochastic cycles". Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 33 (3): 614–623. doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2008.08.007. ISSN0165-1889.
Rust, John (1986). "When is it optimal to kill off the market for used durable goods?". Econometrica. 54 (1): 65–86. doi:10.2307/1914157. JSTOR1914157.
Rust, John; Rothwell, Geoffrey (1995). "Optimal Response to a Shift in Regulatory Regime: The Case of the US Nuclear Power Industry". Journal of Applied Econometrics. 10 (Special Issue: The Microeconometrics of Dynamic Decision Making): S75–S118. CiteSeerX10.1.1.203.2601. doi:10.1002/jae.3950100506. JSTOR2285015.
Rust, John (2010). "Comments on: "Structural vs. atheoretic approaches to econometrics" by Michael Keane". Journal of Econometrics. 156 (1): 21–24. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2009.09.004. ISSN0304-4076.
Rust, John (2014). "The Limits of Inference with Theory: A Review of Wolpin (2013)". Journal of Economic Literature. 52 (3): 820–50. doi:10.1257/jel.52.3.820. S2CID13175008.
Books
Friedman, Daniel; Rust, John (1993). The double auction market: institutions, theories, and evidence. Vol. 14. Westview Press.
^
Rust, John (2010). "Comments on: "Structural vs. atheoretic approaches to econometrics" by Michael Keane". Journal of Econometrics. 156 (1): 21–24. doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2009.09.004. ISSN0304-4076.
^
Wolpin, Kenneth I. (2013). The Limits of Inference without Theory. Tjalling C. Koopmans Memorial Lectures. The MIT Press. ISBN9780262019088. JSTORj.ctt5vjpxr.
^
Rust, John (2014). "The Limits of Inference with Theory: A Review of Wolpin (2013)". Journal of Economic Literature. 52 (3): 820–50. doi:10.1257/jel.52.3.820. S2CID13175008.
^"Maryland Corporates record of Technoluddities, Inc". Retrieved 22 May 2015. TECHNOLUDDITES, INC. is a company incorporated in Maryland and its company number is d10129625. TECHNOLUDDITES, INC. was registered on 07/30/2004
^
Preston McAfee (May 2009). "Manuscript Central Software Review". Retrieved 22 May 2015. An editor asked me for my thoughts on Blackwell-Wiley's Manuscript Central, so I decided to put my thoughts out for everyone to see. I've used three programs to edit journals: Editorial Assistant, Editorial Express and Manuscript Central. I like Editorial Express the best, by a good margin.
