This seat is at its core the successor to Ruislip-Northwood which had an unbroken history as a Conservativesafe seat with non-marginal majorities running from its 1950 creation.[2] This Conservative success was only bolstered by the addition of generally highly Conservative, highly affluent Pinner in 2010.
Political history
The 2015 result was greater than the previous majority, having seen a major fall in the vote of the Liberal Democrats, of 11.7% less than national swing against the party of 15.7%, and made the seat the 57th safest of the Conservative Party's 331 seats by percentage of majority.[3] Since 2015, the Conservative vote share has been slowly declining, while the Liberal Democrat and Labour vote share has been steadily rising.
The London Borough of Harrow wards of: Hatch End; Pinner; Pinner South.
The London Borough of Hillingdon wards of: Eastcote; Harefield Village; Northwood; Northwood Hills; Ruislip.[5]
The Borough of Hillingdon ward of Ickenham and South Harefield was transferred to Uxbridge and South Ruislip, partly offset by minor expansions into neighbouring seats as a result of ward boundary changes.
Constituency profile
The constituency consists of Census Output Areas of two local government districts with similar characteristics: a working population whose income is higher than the national average and lower than average reliance upon social housing.[6] At the end of 2012 the unemployment rate in the constituency stood as 1.6% of the population claiming jobseekers allowance, compared to the regional average of 3.6%.[7] This was the third lowest in the capital behind Richmond Park and Kingston & Surbiton. The borough contributing to the bulk of the seat's statistics are given first.
A low for the capital 22.7/23.5% of the two boroughs' populations were without a car
19.1%/16.8 of the population without qualifications and a high 28%/36.8% at the 2011 census had a level 4 qualifications or above.
In terms of tenure 62.9%/65.2% of homes are owned outright or on a mortgage as at the 2011 census across the two London Boroughs.[8]