The Governor of Sokoto State is elected using a modified two-round system. To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive the plurality of the vote and over 25% of the vote in at least two-thirds of state local government areas. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a plurality of votes in the highest number of local government areas.
Background
Sokoto State is a large northwestern state with agricultural and energy potential but facing a debilitated health sector, low education rates, and intense challenges in security as the nationwide kidnapping epidemic, bandit conflict, religious riots, and herder–farmer clashes have all heavily affected the state.
Politically, the 2019 elections were categorized as a swing back towards the PDP in the aftermath of Waziri Tambuwal's 2018 defection back to the party. Although Buhari won the state again, Sokoto was the state that swung the most towards the PDP in the presidential election; legislatively, the PDP held its one Senate seat after a court ruling and won four House of Representatives seats after the APC won all legislative seats in 2015. Statewise, Waziri Tambuwal won re-election by only about 300 votes while the APC won a narrow majority in the House of Assembly. During the term, APC dissenters worked with the PDP to form House of Assembly majority before eventually defecting and giving the PDP full control of the House.
Ahead of his term, Waziri Tambuwal's inauguration speech focused on education, healthcare, agriculture, water development, and transportation.[6] In terms of his performance, Waziri Tambuwal was commended for improving girl-child and technical education while being criticized for baselessly denying National Bureau of Statistics poverty data, rapidly returning to out-of-state campaigning days after May 2022 religious riots, and rising insecurity.[7][8][9]
Primary elections
The primaries, along with any potential challenges to primary results, were to take place between 4 April and 3 June 2022 but the deadline was extended to 9 June.[2][10] An informal zoning gentlemen's agreement sets the Sokoto East Senatorial District to have the next governor as Sokoto East has not held the governorship since 2007. However, no major party has closed their nomination to non-Easterners as of yet.[11]
All Progressives Congress
The year prior to the APC primaries was beset by party infighting between three factions each supported by House of Representatives member Abdullahi Balarabe Salame, Minister Mohammed Maigari Dingyadi and former Governor Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko, or former Senator and potential gubernatorial candidate Abubakar Umar Gada which culminated in three parallel party congresses in October 2021.[12] The party crisis and legal battle over the congresses' legitimacy led no Sokoto APC chairman to be recognized in February 2022 alongside other state APC chairmen and for Sokoto delegates to be barred from the March APC National Convention.[13][14][15] It was not until seven months after the congresses that a party executive was inaugurated after a court ruled in favor of the Maigari Dingyadi-Magatakarda Wamakko faction in late March and the leadership was sworn in on 29 March.[16][17] The loss led House of Assembly Speaker Aminu Manya Achida (who had sided with Umar Gada's faction) to defect to the PDP; the protracted party crisis along with more potential defections have the potential to hurt the APC in the general election.[18]
On 20 April 2022, the APC National Executive Committee announced the party's schedule for gubernatorial primaries, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦10 million and nomination form price at ₦40 million with a 50% nomination form discount for candidates younger than 40 while women and candidates with disabilities get free nomination forms. Forms were to be sold from 26 April to 6 May until the deadline was later extended to 10 May then 12 May.[19] After the submission of nomination forms by 13 May, candidates were screened by a party committee on 14 and 15 May while 16 May was the date for the screening appeal process.[20] Ward congresses and LGA congresses were set for between 7 and 9 May to elect delegates for the primary. Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 26 May, in concurrence with other APC gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made the next day.[21][22][23][24]
In the days before the primary, disputes emerged over the delegate list as now-candidate Balarabe Salame accused three local government party organizations of selecting delegates without a congress.[25] On primary day, Balarabe Salame and former Senator Abubakar Umar Gada withdrew in protest of the process and three other candidates staged a walkout as several delegates claimed that unknown people were impersonating other delegates.[26] Voting continued into the morning of 27 May and ended in the nomination of Ahmad Aliyu—a former Deputy Governor and the party's 2019 nominee—by a wide margin.[5] Aliyu called for party unity in his acceptance speech and thanked party national chairman Abdullahi Adamu.[27] However, about a month after the primary, the trio of Balarabe Salame, Yusuf Sulaiman, and Abubakar Abdullahi Gumbi defected to the PDP.[28] A few weeks later, former commissioner Idris Muhammad Gobir was announced as Aliyu's running mate.[29]
Faruk Malami Yabo: Ambassador to Jordan (2021–present), 2019 APC gubernatorial candidate and deputy gubernatorial nominee, former Commissioner of Local Government and Community Development (2012–2015), and former Commissioner of Finance (2007–2012)[5]
Yusuf Sulaiman: former Minister of Transport (2011) and former Minister of Sports (2011) (defected after the primary to the PDP)[30][5]
Withdrew
Abdullahi Balarabe Salame: House of Representatives member for Gwadabawa/Illela (2011–present), former House of Assembly member for Gwadabawa East (2007–2011), former Speaker of the House of Assembly (2007–2011), and former Acting Governor (2008) (defected after the primary to the PDP)[31][26]
On 16 March 2022, the national PDP announced its gubernatorial primaries' schedule, setting its expression of interest form price at ₦1 million and the nomination form price at ₦20 million with a 50% discount for candidates between 25 and 30. Forms were to be sold until 1 April but the party later extended the deadline four times before reaching a final deadline of 22 April. After the submission of nomination forms by 25 April, candidates were screened by a party committee on 28 April while 2 May was the rescheduled date for the screening appeal process. Ward congresses were set for 29 April and LGA congresses were rescheduled for 10 May to elect delegates for the primary.[34] Candidates approved by the screening process advanced to a primary set for 25 May, in concurrence with all other PDP gubernatorial primaries; challenges to the result could be made in the following days.[35][36]
On the primary date, every candidates except former Secretary to the State Government Saidu Umar withdrew from the race to support Umar's emergence as the consensus nominee.[37] The nomination of Umar via consensus was confirmed later that day, with Waziri Tambuwal claiming that it was a positive step for party unity along with announcing that withdrawn candidates like Manir Dan Iya and Sagir Bafarawa would receive other nominations in exchange for their withdrawals.[4] However, former candidate Muktar Shagari left the PDP in protest of the Umar's nomination.[38] By July, Dan Iya had obtained the Sokoto North PDP senatorial nomination while Umar had picked Bafarawa as his running mate.
Nominated
Saidu Umar: former Secretary to the State Government (2019–2022) and former Commissioner of Finance (2015–2019)[31][4]
Umar Bature: PDP National Organizing Secretary (2021–present), former commissioner, and former House of Representatives member for Sokoto North/Sokoto South[31][37]
Manir Dan Iya: Deputy Governor (2018–present) and former Commissioner of Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs (2015–2018; 2019–2022)[40][31][37]
Abdussamad Dasuki: former Commissioner of Finance (2019–2022), former House of Representatives member for Kebbe/Tambuwal (2015–2019), and former House of Assembly member for Tambuwal East (2011–2015)[42]
Immediately after the primaries, pundits focused on the fallout from the elections and alleged imposition of nominees.[44] As the general election campaign began in mid-2022, observers noted the potential impact of divisions within the state and national PDP on Umar's campaign due to significant disputes between Tambuwal and other major PDP figures.[45] However, pundits also said most unsuccessful PDP gubernatorial aspirants had been successfully placated while the APC primary led to lingering resentment against former Governor Aliyu Magatakarda Wamakko—who was accused of imposing Aliyu as nominee.[46] On the other hand, analysis in September noted that there had been notable defections from both major parties along with a report that Deputy Governor and former PDP gubernatorial candidate Manir Dan Iya could join the APC.[47] After the start of the official campaign period in October, APC and PDP began public attack statements; it began with the APC accusing the PDP of threatening businessmen, traditional leaders, and religious Leaders to force them to support PDP candidates. In response, the PDP denied the accusations while stating that Wamakko had disrespected traditional leaders during his term as governor.[48]
In late November, analysis from The Nation mentioned the competitiveness of the race while reiterating the potential damage from divides within each major party. Observers also noted similarities between the APC and PDP tickets in terms of regional balance and godfather support.[49][50] Similarly, reporting from the Premium Times from the next month focused on Wamakko's influence on the state APC in opposition to his longtime rival Attahiru Bafarawa's influence on the state PDP.[51] Meanwhile, an election overview from the Daily Trust contended that Umar could be hurt by Tambuwal's position in the campaign of PDP presidential nominee Atiku Abubakar. The January piece also cast doubts on the viability of other candidates like Aminu Ahmad Umar (LP) or Umaru Dahiru (NNPP).[52] Later that month, ThisDay reporting confirmed that the APC had not formally commenced its campaign or formed a campaign council with the election only a month away.[53] However, both major candidates were campaigning extensively; tension rose entering February due to a rise on political violence, including attacks on the convoys of both major candidates.[54]
Later in February, attention largely switched to the nearing presidential election on 25 February. In the election, Sokoto State narrowly voted for Atiku Abubakar (PDP); Abubakar won the state with 49.2% of the vote, beating Bola Tinubu's (APC) 48.6%. Aside from the presidential result, the legislative elections were also very close and mainly inconclusive. These results led analysts to focus on the state's competitiveness.[55][56]
On 26 February 2022, the Independent National Electoral Commission released the timetable, setting out key dates and deadlines for the election.[59] Months later on 27 May 2022, INEC made a slight revision to the timetable, allowing parties extra time to conduct primaries.[60]
28 February 2022 – Publication of Notice of Election
4 April 2022 – First day for the conduct of party primaries
9 June 2022[c] – Final day for the conduct of party primaries, including the resolution of disputes arising from them
1 July 2022 – First day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
15 July 2022 – Final day for submission of nomination forms to INEC via the online portal
12 October 2022 – Commencement of the official campaign period
16 March 2023[d] – Final day of the official campaign period
^AfricaElects projections predict the likelihood of a candidate winning a state by categorizing a state as "Safe" for exceedingly likely, "Likely" for somewhat likely, and "Lean" for least likely. If no clear determination could be made, states are categorized as "tossups".
^EiE-SBM projections predict which candidates will win states.
^The original deadline was 3 June; however, INEC pushed it back to 9 June at the behest of parties.[61]
^The original deadline was 9 March; however, INEC pushed it back to 16 March.[62]
^"NIGERIAN GOVERNORS: Fumbling, wobbling dominate June 2020 performance". Ripples Nigeria. Retrieved 21 May 2022. Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State made headlines in the month of June when he challenged the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) rating of his state as one of the poorest in the country. Tambuwal disagreed with the statistical agency, asking for a proof and explanation of the indices used in arriving at their conclusion. We are tempted to describe Tambuwal's reaction as playing the ostrich. A more honourable response would have been to acknowledge the findings as a tool for strategic decision making. Indeed, it represents a mark of failure that he had not been able to improve on the ranking of Sokoto state after five years in office, and also refusing to take on the challenge that has been thrown at him.
