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2024 United States presidential election in Maryland

For related races, see 2024 United States presidential election.
2024 United States presidential election in Maryland
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout72.66%Decrease 1.97 pp[1]
Reporting
98.7%
as of Nov. 23, 10:44 PM EST
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,886,113 1,032,701
Percentage 62.96% 34.47%
County results
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Maryland took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Maryland voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

Due to the progressive and culturally Northeastern influence of the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area—home to the majority of Maryland's population and most of Maryland's significant African American population—Democrats have consistently won Maryland's electoral votes by double-digit margins since 1992. While regions like Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore remain rural, conservative, culturally Southern, and predominantly white, their impact is outweighed by the state's urban centers. In 2020, Joe Biden from neighboring Delaware won Maryland by 33 points. Maryland was widely expected to remain a safe blue state in 2024.[3]

Harris comfortably won the state by about 28.5%, but by a margin 4 points lower than Joe Biden. Trump became the first Republican presidential nominee to surpass one million votes in Maryland since George W. Bush in 2004. Larry Hogan, who was concurrently running for the U.S. Senate, ran 17 points ahead of Trump.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Maryland Democratic presidential primary

The Maryland Democratic primary was held on May 14, 2024,[4] alongside primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.

Maryland Democratic primary, May 14, 2024[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 591,523 87.1% 95 95
Uncommitted 66,168 9.8%
Marianne Williamson 12,935 1.9%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 8,188 1.2%
Total: 678,814 100.0% 95 23 118

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Maryland Republican presidential primary

The Maryland Republican primary was held on May 14, 2024,[4] alongside primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia.

Maryland Republican primary, May 14, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 205,996 77.7% 37 0 37
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 56,506 21.3% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 2,607 1.0% 0 0 0
Total: 265,109 100.0% 37 0 37

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[6] Solid D December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[7] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] Safe D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[10] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[11] Solid D January 14, 2024
The Economist[12] Safe D June 12, 2024
538[13] Solid D June 11, 2024
RCP[14] Solid D June 26, 2024
NBC News[15] Safe D October 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Morning Consult October 22–31, 2024 490 (LV) ± 5.0% 64% 31% 5%
ActiVote October 6–30, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 64% 37% –
Braun Research[A] October 17–22, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.6% 61% 33% 7%[b]
1,000 (RV) ± 3.6% 59% 34% 7%[c]
Emerson College October 19–21, 2024 865 (LV) ± 3.2% 64% 34% 2%
63% 33% 4%[d]
Morning Consult October 10–15, 2024 490 (LV) ± 4.0% 64% 31% 4%
ActiVote September 8 – October 14, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 63% 37% –
Braun Research[A] September 19–23, 2024 1,012 (LV) ± 3.5% 64% 32% 5%[e]
1,012 (RV) ± 3.5% 62% 32% 6%[f]
Morning Consult September 9–18, 2024 516 (LV) ± 4.0% 61% 33% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D) September 16–17, 2024 543 (RV) ± 4.2% 64% 33% 3%
Emerson College September 12–13, 2024 890 (LV) ± 3.2% 65% 33% 2%
63% 32% 5%
Morning Consult August 30 – September 8, 2024 516 (LV) ± 4.0% 62% 34% 4%
Gonzales Research August 24–30, 2024 820 (RV) ± 3.5% 56% 35% 10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[B] August 14–20, 2024 700 (LV) ± 4.0% 64% 32% 4%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Undecided
Chism Strategies October 28–30, 2024 510 (LV) ± 4.34% 56% 33% 0% 0% 1% 10%[g]
YouGov[h] October 23–27, 2024 500 (LV) ± 5.2% 61% 34% – 0% 2% 5%
University of Maryland, Baltimore County September 23–28, 2024 863 (LV) ± 3.3% 57% 35% 2% 0% 1% 5%[i]
Braun Research[A] September 19–23, 2024 1,012 (LV) ± 3.5% 63% 31% – 1% 1% 5%[j]
1,012 (RV) ± 3.5% 61% 31% – 1% 1% 6%[k]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[B] August 14–20, 2024 700 (LV) ± 4.0% 59% 29% 5% 1% 1% 5%
Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[16] June 19–20, 2024 635 (V) ± 3.9% 56% 30% 15%
Emerson College[17] May 6–8, 2024 1,115 (RV) ± 2.9% 56% 35% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[18][C] May 6–7, 2024 719 (V) ± 3.7% 60% 32% 8%
Emerson College[19] February 12–13, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 55% 32% 13%
Gonzales Research[20] January 23 – February 2, 2024 815 (RV) ± 3.5% 53% 32% 15%
Gonzales Research[21] September 18–28, 2023 818 (LV) ± 3.5% 56% 30% 13%
Gonzales Research[22] May 30 – June 6, 2023 841 (RV) ± 3.5% 52% 35% 13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[17] May 6–8, 2024 1,115 (RV) ± 2.9% 50% 33% 6% 4% 1% 6%
Emerson College[19] February 12−13, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 32% 6% 1% 1% 13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Gonzales Research[20] January 23 – February 2, 2024 815 (RV) ± 3.5% 45% 28% 18% 9%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Gonzales Research[20] January 23 – February 2, 2024 815 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 36% 14%
Gonzales Research[21] September 18–28, 2023 818 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 36% 11%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Gonzales Research[21] September 18–28, 2023 818 (LV) ± 3.5% 56% 35% 9%
Gonzales Research[22] May 30 – June 6, 2023 841 (RV) ± 3.5% 51% 37% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Vivek Ramaswamy

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Vivek
Ramaswamy
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Gonzales Research[21] September 18–28, 2023 818 (LV) ± 3.5% 56% 29% 15%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Maryland[23]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
1,870,812 62.40%
Republican
1,028,785 34.31%
Libertarian
15,436
Green
32,376
Independent
28,364
Write-in
Total votes

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
  3. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 2%
  4. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; "Undecided" with 2%
  5. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
  6. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by the University of Maryland, College Park.
  9. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  10. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%
  11. ^ "No opinion/Skipped" with 5%; "Would not vote" with 1%; "Other" with <0.5%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by The Washington Post and the University of Maryland, College Park
  2. ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
  3. ^ This poll was commissioned by EMILY's List, which supports Biden.

References

  1. ^ "Unofficial 2024 Presidential General Election turnout" (PDF). Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 20, 2024.
  2. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  3. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  4. ^ a b "Legislation - HB0535". Maryland General Assembly. Archived from the original on April 24, 2023. Retrieved April 24, 2023.
  5. ^ "Maryland Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. May 21, 2024. Retrieved June 17, 2024.
  6. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  12. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  13. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  15. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  16. ^ "Alsobrooks leads Hogan by 11". Public Policy Polling. June 24, 2024.
  17. ^ a b Mumford, Camille (May 9, 2024). "Maryland 2024 Poll: Alsobrooks 42%, Trone 41%". Emerson Polling.
  18. ^ "Public Policy Polling (D)" (PDF).
  19. ^ a b Mumford, Camille (February 15, 2024). "Maryland 2024 Poll: Former Gov. Larry Hogan Starts Strong in Election for Open Senate Seat". Emerson Polling.
  20. ^ a b c "Gonzales Research" (PDF).
  21. ^ a b c d "Gonzales Research" (PDF).
  22. ^ a b Sears, Bryan P. (June 14, 2023). "Poll: Biden's independent voter trouble and a hypothetical contest against Wes Moore".
  23. ^ "Unofficial 2024 Presidential General Election Results for President and Vice President of the United States". elections.maryland.gov. Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved October 24, 2024.

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