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2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey

For related races, see 2024 United States presidential election.
2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Projected electoral vote 14 0
Popular vote 2,218,078 1,966,571
Percentage 51.97% 46.07%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in New Jersey
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U.S. House of Representatives
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Jersey City
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Atlantic City
Mayoral elections

The 2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

As a densely-populated state in the Northeast, New Jersey has backed the Democratic candidate in every presidential election starting in 1992, doing so consistently by double digits starting in 2008. In 2020, the state broke 57%–41% for Democrat Joe Biden of neighboring Delaware. The state was heavily favored to be carried by the Democrats by forecasters.

New Jersey has been called for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. However, Harris is winning the state by 5.9 points, significantly smaller than Biden's 16-point win in 2020. This is the first time since the 2004 presidential election that the Democratic nominee won the state with a single digit margin of victory, and Republican nominee Donald Trump's 46% vote share in New Jersey is on par with George W. Bush's performance in 2004 and the closest a Republican has come to winning the state's electoral votes since George H. W. Bush in 1992. New Jersey also had the second-largest swing to the right from the 2020 election after neighboring New York, owing to poor democratic turnout compared to 2020 and 2016.[2] New Jersey joined most other blue and blue-leaning states such as New York, California, and Illinois to see significant rightward trends in 2024.[3] Trump's over 1.96 million votes is the most received by a Republican in a presidential election in the state's history, surpassing Ronald Reagan's 1.93 million votes from 1984.

Trump would retake Gloucester County and Morris County, which he won in 2016 but lost to Biden in 2020. Additionally, Trump would be the first Republican to win Passaic County since 1992, and Atlantic County and Cumberland County since 1988.

With this election, and Republican Jack Ciattarelli's strong performance in the 2021 gubernatorial election, some analysts believe New Jersey has transitioned from a reliable blue state into a swing state.[4]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary

The New Jersey Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

New Jersey Democratic primary, June 4, 2024[5]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 458,281 88.2% 124
Uncommitted 46,988 9.1% 2
Terrisa Bukovinac 14,179 2.7%
Write-in votes 1,269 0.2%
Total: 520,717 100.0% 126 20 146

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 New Jersey Republican presidential primary

The New Jersey Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

New Jersey Republican primary, June 4, 2024[6]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 294,658 96.7% 12 12
Write-in votes 9,915 3.3%
Total: 304,573 100.00% 12 0 12

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[7] Solid D November 1, 2024
Inside Elections[8] Solid D October 31, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Safe D September 25, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] Safe D August 26, 2024
CNalysis[11] Solid D December 30, 2023
CNN[12] Solid D January 14, 2024
The Economist[13] Safe D October 27, 2024
538[14] Solid D October 21, 2024
NBC News[15] Safe D October 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Research Co.[16] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 57% 40% 3%
Rutgers-Eagleton[17] October 15–22, 2024 451 (RV) – 55% 35% 10%[b]
478 (RV) 51%[c] 37% 12%[d]
ActiVote[18] October 2–28, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 57% 43% –
Cygnal (R)[19] October 23–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 40% 8%[e]
ActiVote[20] September 4 – October 2, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 56% 44% –
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
United 2024 (R)[21] July 1–2, 2024 477 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 43% 16%
John Zogby Strategies[22][A] April 13–21, 2024 530 (LV) – 51% 42% 7%
Emerson College[23] March 26–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 39% 15%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
United 2024 (R)[21] July 1–2, 2024 477 (RV) ± 4.5% 43% 43% 8% — 3% 3%
Emerson College[23] March 26–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 36% 8% 1% 1% 13%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
co/efficient (R)[24] June 26–27, 2024 810 (LV) ± 3.4% 40% 41% 7%[f] 12%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][A] April 13–21, 2024 530 (LV) – 48% 41% 11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[22][A] April 13–21, 2024 530 (LV) – 42% 40% 18%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in New Jersey[25]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Kamala Harris
Tim Walz 		2,212,479 51.91% −5.43%
Republican Donald Trump
JD Vance 		1,963,242 46.06% +4.66%
Green Jill Stein
Butch Ware 		42,090 0.99% +0.68%
Independent
23,395 0.55% N/A
Libertarian Chase Oliver
Mike ter Maat 		10,478 0.25% −0.45%
Socialism and Liberation Claudia de la Cruz
Karina Garcia 		5,081 0.12% +0.06%
Constitution Randall Terry
Stephen Broden 		3,005 0.07% +0.01%
Socialist Workers Rachele Fruit
Margaret Trowe[g] 		1,364 0.03% N/A
Socialist Equality Joseph Kishore
Jerome White 		1,355 0.03% N/A
Total votes 4,262,489 100.0%
Democratic hold

By congressional district

Harris won 8 of 12 congressional districts, with the remaining four going to Trump, including one that elected a Democrat.[27][user-generated source]

District Harris Trump Representative
1st 59% 40% Donald Norcross
2nd 43% 56% Jeff Van Drew
3rd 53% 45% Andy Kim (118th Congress)
Herb Conaway (119th Congress)
4th 34% 64% Chris Smith
5th 50% 48% Josh Gottheimer
6th 52% 46% Frank Pallone Jr.
7th 48% 50% Tom Kean Jr.
8th 61% 37% Rob Menendez
9th 48% 49% Nellie Pou
10th 74% 24% LaMonica McIver
11th 53% 45% Mikie Sherrill
12th 61% 37% Bonnie Watson Coleman

By county

County Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Atlantic 64,176 50.99% 59,293 47.11% 2,388 1.89% 4,883 3.87% 125,857
Bergen 217,096 47.12% 232,660 50.50% 10,965 2.38% 15,564 3.38% 460,721
Burlington 94,116 40.89% 132,275 57.47% 3,792 1.65% 38,159 16.58% 230,183
Camden 87,767 35.42% 155,522 62.76% 4,497 1.81% 67,755 27.34% 247,786
Cape May 32,151 58.68% 21,648 39.51% 987 1.80% 10,503 19.17% 54,786
Cumberland 28,675 51.25% 26,577 47.50% 700 1.25% 2,098 3.75% 55,952
Essex 83,908 26.78% 224,596 71.69% 4,779 1.53% 140,688 41.91% 331,283
Gloucester 83,326 50.42% 78,708 47.63% 3,229 1.95% 4,618 2.79% 165,263
Hudson 79,913 34.41% 144,765 62.34% 7,554 3.25% 64,852 27.93% 232,232
Hunterdon 42,391 52.16% 36,995 45.52% 1,885 2.32% 5,396 6.64% 81,271
Mercer 52,274 31.92% 107,558 65.67% 3,947 2.41% 55,284 31.91% 163,748
Middlesex 162,459 44.37% 191,802 52.39% 11,873 3.24% 29,343 8.01% 366,134
Monmouth 197,409 54.59% 156,382 43.25% 7,805 2.16% 41,027 11.35% 361,596
Morris 143,439 50.39% 135,672 47.66% 6,955 2.43% 5,555 1.95% 286,066
Ocean 227,232 67.40% 105,789 31.38% 4,114 1.22% 121,443 35.93% 338,035
Passaic 100,955 49.23% 95,155 46.40% 8,953 4.37% 5,800 2.85% 203,351
Salem 18,227 58.71% 12,236 39.42% 581 1.87% 5,991 19.30% 31,044
Somerset 74,101 41.55% 98,790 55.39% 5,452 3.06% 24,689 13.84% 178,343
Sussex 52,121 61.39% 31,008 36.52% 1,775 2.09% 21,113 24.87% 84,904
Union 89,063 36.81% 147,327 60.90% 5,533 2.29% 58,264 24.08% 241,923
Warren 35,772 59.27% 23,318 38.63% 1,266 2.10% 12,454 20.63% 60,356
Totals 1,966,571 45.65% 2,218,076 51.49% 251,505 5.84% 4,307,831

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Neither/Someone else" with 6%
  3. ^ With each candidate's party affiliation excluded
  4. ^ "Neither/Someone else" with 7%
  5. ^ "A third-party candidate" with 4%
  6. ^ Grouped with "Other Third Party Candidate"
  7. ^ Replaced by Dennis Richter.[26]

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. ^ Tully, Tracey; New York Times (November 7, 2024). "Trump's Narrow Loss in New Jersey Signals a Shift to the Right".
  3. ^ Reporter, Martha McHardy US News (November 6, 2024). "America's red shift: Map shows how much each state moved toward Trump". Newsweek. Retrieved November 18, 2024.
  4. ^ Friedman, Matt; Han, Daniel (November 6, 2024). New Jersey might be a swing state now. Politico. Retrieved November 9, 2024.
  5. ^ "New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  6. ^ "New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  7. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  13. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
  14. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 24, 2024.
  15. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  16. ^ Canseco, Mario (November 4, 2024). "Battleground States Remain Closely Contested in U.S. Race". Research Co.
  17. ^ "New Jersey Voters Are "True Blue" to Democrats, But Loyalty Fades and Uncertainty Rises in the Absence of Partisanship Down Ballot" (PDF). Rutgers-Eagleton. October 30, 2024.
  18. ^ Allis, Victor (October 29, 2024). "Harris Leads in New Jersey". ActiVote.
  19. ^ Shucard, Ryan (October 26, 2024). "New Jersey Statewide Poll: Harris Underperforms Compared to Past Democratic Nominees". Cygnal. Archived from the original on October 29, 2024. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  20. ^ Allis, Victor (October 3, 2024). "Harris leads by double digits in New Jersey". ActiVote. Retrieved October 3, 2024.
  21. ^ a b Wildstein, David (July 3, 2024). "GOP super PAC poll in N.J. shows Biden vs. Trump, Kim vs. Bashaw statistically tied". New Jersey Globe.
  22. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  23. ^ a b Mumford, Camille (April 2, 2024). "New Jersey 2024 Poll: Majority of Democrats Support Kim for U.S. Senate Nomination". Emerson Polling.
  24. ^ "New Jersey U.S. Senate 2024 - General Election". co/efficient. June 27, 2024.
  25. ^ Secretary of State of New Jersey (August 30, 2024). "Official List Candidates for President For GENERAL ELECTION 11/05/2024 Election". nj.gov. Retrieved September 2, 2024.
  26. ^ "Dennis Richter, SWP candidate for vice president – The Militant". The Militant – A socialist newsweekly published in the interests of working people. May 4, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
  27. ^ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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