Hawthorn has usually been a safe seat for the Liberal Party and its predecessors, having been held by a number of leaders and senior ministers. In the 1960s, the seat of Hawthorn included parts of working class Richmond, making it less secure for the Liberals than in recent decades.
With the exception of two occasions when Liberal MPs defected and sat as independents, it has only been held by non-Liberal MPs three times in its history: independent Leslie Hollins from 1940 to 1945, Labor-turned-Labor (Anti-Communist) MP Charles Murphy from 1952 to 1955, and Labor MP John Kennedy in 2018.
Kennedy's victory over Liberal MP John Pesutto at the 2018 state election was considered a shock, with Guardian Australia saying he had "little chance" going into the election.[2] Pesutto was a panelist on ABC on election night when he was told on live television that he had lost his seat.[3]