The Liberal Party has held the riding since its creation in 1988. The closest election was a 7% Liberal win in 2006. The riding has voted Liberal even during Progressive Conservative and Conservative governments.
The New Democratic Party received its greatest level of support in the 2021 election at 19%. The Greens saw their highest vote here in 2008 with 7%.
Political geography
The Liberals have support in most parts of the riding. In the 2004 election, the strongest Liberal areas were in the Alta Vista neighbourhood. However, in the 2006 election, they lost some of this support, but it was gained from lower income areas such as Heron Gate. By 2008, the Liberals had gained much of their support back in Alta Vista.
The Conservatives have their strongest amount in the southern parts of the riding, especially in the community of Blossom Park and around the Macdonald-Cartier International Airport By 2006, the Conservatives had won the neighbourhood of Elmvale Acres, but this was lost in 2008. The New Democrats have only won one poll in recent memory, and that was a poll in Heron Gate in 2004.[2][3][4][5]
The district was created in 1987. 65.7% was from Ottawa—Carleton, 20.1% from Ottawa Centre and 14.2% from Ottawa—Vanier. At the time, it was bounded on the west by the Rideau River, on the north by the Queensway, on the east by the city limits at the time, and on the south by the following line (from west to east beginning at the Rideau River): Ottawa city limits, River Road, Limebank Road, Leitrim Road, Canadian Pacific Railway, Lester Road (allowance for a road between lots 10 and 11, Concession 3 in Gloucester Township, Albion Road, Walkley Road.
1996 Redistribution
Following the 1996 redistribution, the riding added the neighbourhood of Hunt Club Park from Carleton—Gloucester, by changing the southeastern boundary to the city limits at the time (from Walkley to Conroy).
2003 Redistribution
Following the 2003 redistribution, the riding's eastern boundary was changed to Highway 417 from the former city limits. The boundary would follow Highway 417 from the Rideau River until Hunt Club Road. This shift added in a small piece of territory that was in Ottawa—Vanier and Ottawa—Orléans riding.
The 2022 Federal Redistribution pushed the riding boundaries southward to encompass the growing neighbourhood of Findlay Creek, formerly part of the Carleton riding. The new boundaries will be in effect for the next Federal election to be held no later than 2025.
It also took away the north-west corner of the riding. The area between the Rideau River and Bank St in the east to the Railway Tracks to the south, encompassing the neighbourhoods of Riverside Park, Billings Bridge and Heron Park were moved to the Ottawa Centre riding.
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.
Graph of election results in Ottawa South (minor parties that never got 2% of the vote or didn't run consistently are omitted)
Next
The Conservatives have nominated police officer Blair Turner to be their candidate. He is the son of former Progressive Conservative MP for Ottawa—CarletonBarry Turner.[6]
Incumbent Liberal MP David McGuinty faced a re-match against local businessman Eli Tannis of the Conservative Party. The NDP ran national security expert Huda Mukbil.[8] McGuinty easily won re-election with a slightly reduced majority, while the NDP had its strongest federal result in the riding's history, besting its prior high-water mark in 2011.
Incumbent MP David McGuinty ran for re-election, and was challenged by Conservative Eli Tannis, a Lebanese-Canadian entrepreneur,[10] New Democrat Morgan Gay, a community organizer[11] and Green Les Schram, a self employed consultant.[12] Despite winning 5,000 fewer votes than he had four years earlier, he easily held off the challenge from his nearest (Conservative) rival, with more than double the latter's total.
While the Liberals were the third party in Parliament, David McGuinty served as the Liberal Party's critic for Natural Resources (2011–2012), Industry (2013) and the Privy Council Office (2013–2015). He was easily re-elected in 2015 when the Liberals were swept into power. He defeated the Conservative candidate, Dev Balkissoon, a consulting firm owner[15] by over 23,000 votes. Balkissoon was criticized during the campaign for missing an all-candidates debate.[16] The NDP candidate was George Brown, a former Ottawa City councillor for Riverside Ward (1985–1994), and the Green candidate was John Redins, a disabilities rights activist.
2011 election popular vote map by polling division
While in opposition, McGuinty was promoted to the position of the Official Opposition House leader. Once again, he faced and defeated Elie Salibi, the Conservative candidate. McGuinty was one of only 34 Liberals elected to the House of Commons in the election, and both he and Salibi saw a reduction in their percentage of votes. The NDP candidate, James McLaren, a teacher, had the second best (after 2021) performance for the NDP in riding history, despite a mid-campaign controversy regarding comments he made on Facebook.[19]
2008 election popular vote map by polling division
In opposition, McGuinty served as the Liberal Party's environment critic. He faced nominal opposition from three lesser-known candidates. The Conservative candidate was Elie Salibi, the director of international sales with Corel, who was born in Lebanon. The NDP candidate was Hijal De Sarkar, a Carleton University political science student of Bengali descent. The Green candidate was Qais Ghanem, a doctor, born in Yemen. Former Libertarian Party leader Jean-Serge Brisson also ran, as well as Al Gullon, the Progressive Canadian candidate. Facing lower turnout in the riding itself, as well as nationwide, and a strong lack of enthusiasm for the Liberal leader Stéphane Dion, McGuinty was able to increase his vote total, and his lead over his closest opponent, from the 2006 election. McGuinty just barely missed the 50% mark, but was nonetheless re-elected handily in Ottawa South.
2006 election popular vote map by polling division
David McGuinty was re-elected after two years as a Liberal backbencher. The race was expected to be closer than 2004, which it was, as McGuinty faced a tough challenge from Conservative Allan Cutler. Cutler was the whistleblower in the Liberal Sponsorship Scandal which saw millions of dollars of public funds transferred to Liberal friendly firms in Quebec during the Chrétien era. The margin of victory between the liberal and his conservative challenger was closer than in 2004, but McGuinty eventually came out on top. Cutler himself was painted as a hypocrite as he would not address the issue of his nomination. Accusations started that 2004 candidate Alan Riddell was given $50,000 not to stand for nomination in the race. Riddell was also pushed aside in an earlier nomination race that saw former MP Barry Turner acclaimed, but would later drop out, forcing a new race. Running for the NDP was the Lebanese-born economist Henri Sader who faced a difficult challenge holding on to the votes that Monia Mazigh won in the previous election. Running again for Greens again was John Ford who failed to hold on to his votes, and running for the Progressive Canadian Party again was Brad Thomson who lost votes as well. Thomson had all but dropped out however, endorsing McGuinty. The Marijuana Party planned to run Tim Meehan, but he did not gain ballot access.
Barry Turner was acclaimed for the nomination when Allan Riddell, the party's candidate in 2004, withdrew because of allegations about a prank in which he was involved in university. The party later cancelled Turner's nomination and called a new meeting. Turner was not able to get an answer from the party about why the nomination was cancelled, and decided against seeking the nomination again.[22][23] Allan Cutler announced that he would seek the nomination.
The riding's boundaries had very little change. 99.7% of the riding remained intact, taking 0.3% from Ottawa-Vanier. John Manley retired prior to the 2004 election. He was among a number of high-profile Liberals to retire who were known to be Jean Chrétien loyalists. David McGuinty, a lawyer and brother of Ontario PremierDalton McGuinty, won the Liberal nomination. He was known to be a friend of Prime Minister Paul Martin. McGuinty faced a steep challenge from Alan Riddell, another lawyer, and Monia Mazigh, the NDP candidate. Riddell, the Conservative candidate, had suffered bad press when it was discovered he had been driving with a suspended license. Mazigh, who lived in Nepean, was another high-profile candidate, being the wife of Maher Arar, who was wrongly accused of terrorism. McGuinty suffered too, as his brother's government was unpopular at the time, but in the end was victorious.
^Change from 2000 is not based on redistributed results. Conservative Party change is based on the combination of Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative Party totals from the 2000 election.
By 2000, Manley had progressed to Minister of Foreign Affairs. He defeated Brad Darbyson, the Canadian Alliance candidate, who was an investment counsellor. Finishing in third was engineer Kevin Lister, the Progressive Conservative candidate and native Albertan.
^ Canadian Alliance change compares to the vote total for the Reform Party candidate in 1997.
1997
Before the 1997 election, the riding changed its boundaries slightly. The old 1987 version encompassed 95% of the new 1996 version. The remaining 5% came from nearby Carleton-Gloucester. John Manley, now the Minister of Industry was once again re-elected. He faced opposition from the Somali community in the riding for his indifference to their needs and concerns. This did not have enough impact, however, and Manley won again with another massive majority. He defeated Carla Marie Dancey, the Reform Party candidate who lived outside the riding. Also running was Keith Beardsley, a staffer to MP Gerry Weiner. Many attribute Manley's victory to attracting business to Ottawa's high tech sector.
Manley was re-elected, as part of a landslide victory for the opposition Liberals. He defeated consulting engineer Doug Walkinshaw of the Reform Party. Joe Anton, the Progressive Conservative candidate, an auditor for Revenue Canada defeated the former mayor of Kanata for the Tory nomination. Ursule Critoph, an economist, was the NDP candidate.
Ottawa South in 1987 showing the districts from which it was created.
Barry Turner was the Progressive Conservative incumbent MP going into the 1988 election. He had previously been the MP for the Ottawa—Carleton riding. As an MP, Turner had a reputation as a hard working MP. However, he would end up being defeated by John Manley, a lawyer with a specialty in tax law. Many [who?] attribute the loss to a phone and mail campaign by the Public Service Alliance of Canada, which was upset at the Progressive Conservative Government's cuts to the civil service.[clarification needed]
