The Super Bowl curse is a phrase that refers to phenomena that may occur in the National Football League (NFL) where the team whose stadium will host the upcoming Super Bowl either misses the playoffs or suffers early postseason elimination.
The team that loses the Super Bowl often has a less successful following season and may miss the playoffs.
The term was first used around 1992, when The Washington Post used the term in print.[3] Former NFL General Manager Charley Casserly attributed the curse to such factors as "a shorter offseason (five weeks shorter than the 18 teams that failed to make the playoffs), contract problems, [and] more demand for your players' time".[4] Casserly also noted that "once the season starts, you become the biggest game on everybody's schedule," suggesting that pressure from fans and spectators may also affect a team's performance.[4]
Six teams with Super Bowls in their home venue have qualified for the divisional playoffs: the Dolphins twice in 1994 and 1998, the 2016 Houston Texans, the 2017 Minnesota Vikings, the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the 2021 Los Angeles Rams; and three have qualified to play in the conference championship game: the Vikings in the 2017 NFC Championship Game, the Buccaneers in the 2020 NFC Championship Game, and the Rams in the 2021 NFC Championship Game (the 2021 Rams became the first Super Bowl host team to host a Conference Championship). From 1966 to 2011 (excluding the six Super Bowl games held in a stadium without a professional team), the Super Bowl host team had 11 winning seasons, four split seasons, and 25 losing seasons. Mathematically, the probability of that many losing seasons or more occurring by chance (assuming a 50 percent chance of having a losing season (disregarding .500 seasons)) is 7.69 percent. Beginning with the 2021 season, the NFL stretched to 17 games being played; it is no longer possible to have a split season unless there is a tie game. The Super Bowl host stadium is selected several years before the game is played, regardless of the teams that qualify.
This list of examples is not exhaustive; until 2020, no team had ever qualified and played in the Super Bowl while its home stadium was hosting it, home or away. Furthermore, a Super Bowl host stadium's team has never been the #1 seed nor had the best overall record in the league, as the 2020 Buccaneers were the fifth seed in the NFC.
Did not qualify for the playoffs; this was the first season the NFL instituted a seeding system for the playoffs; four playoff spots were given to a conference, the three division winners were the top three seeds, seeded 1 through 3 according to who had the best regular season record, and a Wild Card team had the #4 seed. The Dolphins tied with the Baltimore Colts in the AFC East standings with a record of 10–4 for first place, but lost the tiebreaker due to losing both games to the Colts during the season; and the Dolphins lost out on the last playoff spot because they were beaten out by the Cincinnati Bengals with an 11–3 record.
Started out the season 8–1, but went 0–6 afterward to miss the playoffs. It is the final season for quarterback Dan Fouts and tight end Kellen Winslow.
Started out the season 4–2, with all wins coming against divisional opponents, but then lost six straight games and ended the season with a 6–10 record. Finished second place in the NFC Central due to a four-way tie with the Lions, Packers, and Vikings; the Buccaneers won the tiebreaker over all the other three teams due to a better division record, the Buccaneers were 5–3 in games within the NFC Central, while the other three teams were all 3–5 in games within the division.
Quarterback Stan Humphries was lost for the season after starting eight games because of repeated concussions causing his injury. Backup Craig Whelihan took over as a starter, and the Chargers were winless the rest of the season.
Last Super Bowl host to make the playoffs until the 2014 Arizona Cardinals. Miss the opportunity to be the NFC's #2 seed and have a home Divisional Round game before losing in overtime in the final week of the regular season. That loss dropped Tampa Bay down to the #5 seed and starting on the road in the wild-card round, which they would subsequently lose 21–3 to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Dolphins lost quarterback Chad Pennington, running back Ronnie Brown, and other key contributors on the roster to injury throughout the season. Eliminated from playoff contention in week 17.
The Dolphins were criticized for intentionally losing games after trading Laremy Tunsil, Kenny Stills, and Minkah Fitzpatrick for multiple draft picks. The Dolphins were pounded in their first 4 games, losing by 3 TD or more. After they were 3–9, the Steelers beat the Browns 20–13, which mathematically eliminated the Dolphins from playoff contention in Week 13.
After adding quarterback Tom Brady and running back Leonard Fournette during the offseason in free agency and wide receiver Antonio Brown during the season, the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers became the first team to advance to play in and win the Super Bowl in their home stadium. The team posted their first playoff win since 2002, their first playoff appearance since 2007, and became the first Wild Card team to appear and win in a Super Bowl since the 2010 Packers. The Buccaneers were also the first club to win a Super Bowl without a first-round bye since the 2012 Ravens.
Had the chance to get into the playoffs as a Wild Card team heading into the week 18 match against the Las Vegas Raiders, either with a win or a tie. It would have been the AFC's #7 seed with a win, or the #6 seed with a tie. The game went into overtime and came very close to ending in a tie, where both the Chargers and Raiders would have made the playoffs in such an event. Two seconds remained in the overtime period; the Chargers would lose on a last-second field goal when Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson kicked a 47-yard field goal as time expired. This knocked the Chargers out of the playoffs. Despite the Los Angeles Rams being the second team to win at their home stadium, they were designated as the away team.
In a season plagued by off-field drama, they started at 4–6 in the first 10 games but suffered their third consecutive late-season collapse after going 0–7 in their final 7 games with season-ending injuries to their starters and inconsistencies on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball.
Fired Josh McDaniels after a 3-5 start, and although interim coach Antonio Pierce rallied the team to a 5-4 finish, failed to make the playoffs. Lost Week 14 against the Minnesota Vikings 3-0 for the first 3-0 loss by any team in 16 seasons.
Tied the Patriots with an 11–5 record in the AFC East standings but lost the tiebreaker to New England, for the New England Patriots had a better division record, so the Miami Dolphins finished in second place. Would host the Houston Oilers in the Wild Card game and lost.
Had the chance to win the division entering the final week but lost to the Buccaneers in a game that decided who would get into the playoffs and win the NFC Central. Previously, the Lions were undefeated in their home games.
Started the year out 5-4, but went 1-6 afterwards to miss the playoffs three seasons removed from making the AFC championship game and being upset by the Patriots.
After losing to the Rams in week 12 and the Lions in week 13, the Saints were eliminated from playoff contention. Quarterback Bobby Hebert was benched for backup John Fourcade who started the last three games.
The Jaguars' playoff chances were spoiled and dealt a critical blow when they got shut out by the Houston Texans 21–0 in week 16. The loss ultimately eliminated the Jaguars from the playoffs.
Started the season 1-6, coach Nick Saban left after two seasons with the team, his only seasons as NFL coach, to take the University of Alabama coaching position where he would go on to have a legendary career.
Eliminated from playoff contention after the Cardinals lost to the Saints and the Vikings won against the Bears in week 15. The next season they held a 9–7 record and went to Super Bowl XLIII.
Were the first team to host a Divisional Round game while being the host Super Bowl stadium in the same season. The Vikings' last-second 29–24 victory over the Saints would catapult them to the NFC Championship Game against the Eagles, and many expected the Vikings to win. The eventual Super Bowl champions defeated the Vikings 38–7 despite this. Until 2020, this was the closest a home field team ever came to hosting the Super Bowl.
Second team to win at their home stadium. First to achieve the feat as the designated away team.
The Non-Repeat Curse
Since 1993, few winning teams have followed up their Super Bowl appearances with a second Super Bowl appearance or even advanced to a conference title game in the subsequent season (the 1994 Dallas Cowboys qualified for their conference title but did not qualify for the Super Bowl). Only seven teams have won back-to-back Super Bowl championships, and only one of these seven have made more than two consecutive winning appearances in the Super Bowl. The only franchise to reach more than three straight title games was the Buffalo Bills who lost four Super Bowls from 1990 to 1993. The hard salary cap, draft, free agency, schedule, generally large team roster, and generally high injury rate of the sport make it more difficult to win repeat league championships in the NFL compared to other major North American professional sports leagues (Major League Baseball, the National Basketball Association, and the National Hockey League) where dynasties have been prevalent.[5]
Between the 2004 and 2022 season, no incumbent holder had managed to successfully defend their title until the 2023 Kansas City Chiefs with wins in Super Bowl LVII and LVIII. Between 2006 and 2013, every defending Super Bowl champion would conclude the following season either losing their opening playoff game or failing to qualify for the playoffs.
This list of examples includes every team that has ever had back-to-back appearances at the Super Bowl.
Although many teams experience this phenomenon, it is certainly not the rule. There are many speculations made about potential causal factors for this trend, including the team having a shorter offseason due to their extended postseason play, difficulty settling contracts,[6] more pressure on the players, and an increase in visibility, which could contribute to nervous playing.[4][7] Only the 1971 Dallas Cowboys, 1972 Miami Dolphins, and 2018 New England Patriots have followed up a Super Bowl defeat with a Super Bowl win the following season.
One feature of the Super Bowl Runner-Up Jinx is that the team that loses the Super Bowl will not advance as far as the conference championship game the following season — something only three of the last 27 such teams have done (the Patriots twice). Not only that, but 12 of these 27 Super Bowl runners-up did not even make the playoffs the year after, including four that finished last in their division.[8]
