2016 United States Senate election in Kansas

2016 United States Senate election in Kansas
	Moran: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Wiesner: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 40–50% 50% No data
U.S. senator before election; Jerry Moran; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; Jerry Moran; Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 2.

Incumbent Republican Senator Jerry Moran won re-election to a second term in office.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Jerry Moran, incumbent senator^[1]
D.J. Smith, former Osawatomie city councilwoman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[2]

Declined

Tim Huelskamp, U.S. Representative^[1]^[3]
Mike Pompeo, U.S. Representative^[4]
Todd Tiahrt, former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[5]^[6]
Milton Wolf, radiologist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[7]^[5]^[8]^[9]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jerry Moran	Dennis Pyle	Milton Wolf	Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Moran)^[10]	February 28 – March 3, 2015	500	± 4.38%	73%	9%	—	18%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Moran)^[10]	February 28 – March 3, 2015	500	± 4.38%	70%	—	18%	12%

Results

Republican primary results ^[11]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jerry Moran (Incumbent)	230,907	79.09%
	Republican	D. J. Smith	61,056	20.91%
Total votes			291,963	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Monique Singh-Bey, member of Universal African Peoples Organization^[12]
Patrick Wiesner, attorney and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2014^[13]

Declined

Carl Brewer, former mayor of Wichita^[5]
Paul Davis, former minority leader of the Kansas House of Representatives and nominee for Governor of Kansas in 2014^[5]
Jill Docking, businesswoman, former member of the Kansas Board of Regents, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996 and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014^[14]
Dan Glickman, former U.S. Representative and former United States Secretary of Agriculture^[14]
Greg Orman, businessman and independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[5]
Joe Reardon, former mayor of Kansas City and Wyandotte County^[5]
Kathleen Sebelius, former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services and former governor of Kansas^[15]^[16]
Jim Slattery, former U.S. Representative and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2008^[5]^[14]
Margie Wakefield, attorney and nominee for Kansas's 2nd congressional district in 2014^[5]

Results

Democratic primary results ^[11]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Patrick Wiesner	59,522	62.94%
	Democratic	Monique Singh-Bey	35,042	37.06%
Total votes			94,564	100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Robert Garrard, nominee for KS-02 in 2008^[2]

Libertarian primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Robert Garrard		100.00%
Total votes				100.00%

Independent

Candidates

Declined

Greg Orman, businessman and Independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[5]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[17]	Safe R	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[18]	Safe R	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[19]	Safe R	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos^[20]	Safe R	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics^[21]	Safe R	November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jerry Moran (R)	Patrick Wiesner (D)	Robert Garrard (L)	Undecided
SurveyMonkey^[22]	November 1–7, 2016	1,311	± 4.6%	59%	37%	—	4%
SurveyMonkey^[23]	October 31–November 6, 2016	1,139	± 4.6%	58%	38%	—	4%
Fort Hays State University^[24]	November 1–3, 2016	313	± 3.5%	77%	13%	10%	0%
SurveyMonkey^[25]	October 28–November 3, 2016	1,162	± 4.6%	58%	38%	—	4%
SurveyMonkey^[26]	October 27–November 2, 2016	1,123	± 4.6%	57%	38%	—	5%
SurveyMonkey^[27]	October 26–November 1, 2016	1,164	± 4.6%	57%	38%	—	5%
SurveyMonkey^[28]	October 25–31, 2016	1,273	± 4.6%	56%	39%	—	5%
KSN News/SurveyUSA^[29]	October 26–30, 2016	596	± 4.1%	55%	31%	6%	8%
KSN News/SurveyUSA^[30]	October 11–15, 2016	549	± 4.2%	56%	31%	5%	8%
KSN News/SurveyUSA^[31]	September 6–11, 2016	565	± 4.2%	50%	34%	6%	11%
KSN News/SurveyUSA^[32]	August 3–7, 2016	566	± 4.2%	52%	32%	6%	10%
KSN News/SurveyUSA^[33]	July 8–11, 2016	537	± 4.3%	52%	33%	—	15%

Hypothetical polling

with Monique Singh-Bey

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jerry Moran (R)	Monique Singh-Bey (D)	Undecided
KSN News/SurveyUSA^[33]	July 8–11, 2016	537	± 4.3%	54%	30%	15%

with Kathleen Sebelius

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jerry Moran (R)	Kathleen Sebelius (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[34]	September 11–14, 2014	1,328	± 2.7%	52%	37%	11%

Results

United States Senate election in Kansas, 2016 ^[35]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Jerry Moran (incumbent)	732,376	62.18%	−7.91%
	Democratic	Patrick Wiesner	379,740	32.24%	+5.86%
	Libertarian	Robert D. Garrard	65,760	5.58%	+3.44%
	Independent	DJ Smith (write-in)	46	0.00%	N/A
Total votes			1,177,922	100.0%	N/A
	Republican hold

By congressional district

Moran won all 4 congressional districts.^[36]

District	Moran	Wiesner	Garrard	Representative
1st	76%	19%	5%	Roger Marshall
2nd	59%	36%	5%	Lynn Jenkins
3rd	53%	42%	6%	Kevin Yoder
4th	64%	30%	6%	Mike Pompeo

References

^ ^a ^b Alexis Levinson (November 19, 2014). "Huelskamp Open to Moran Primary Challenge". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 21, 2014. Retrieved November 19, 2014.
^ ^a ^b Wingerter, Justin (June 2, 2016). "Rep. Lynn Jenkins drops a challenger, Sen. Jerry Moran gains one at the filing deadline". Topeka Capital-Journal. Retrieved June 2, 2016.
^ Alexis Levinson (January 8, 2015). "Congressman Says Wife Nixed Senate Run". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 8, 2015. Retrieved January 8, 2015.
^ Clarkin, Mary (April 5, 2016). "Pompeo doesn't rule out a Senate race while criticizing Moran". Hays Daily News. Retrieved April 5, 2016.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
^ Clarkin, Mary (April 27, 2015). "Ex-Congressman Tiahrt bound for D.C. lobbying firm". The Hutchinson News. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
^ Alexis Levinson (July 29, 2014). "In Kansas, Conservatives Suffer From Mississippi Hangover". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 4, 2014. Retrieved September 11, 2014.
^ Wingerter, Justin (November 3, 2015). "Prospective 2016 U.S. Senate contender Milton Wolf tries to terminate his campaign committee". The Topeka Capital-Journal. Retrieved November 11, 2015.
^ Kraske, Steve (February 19, 2016). "Milton Wolf hints, but won't commit, to another race this year for the U.S. Senate from Kansas". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved March 22, 2016.
^ Public Opinion Strategies (R-Moran)
^ ^a ^b "2016 Official Primary Results". Kansas Secretary of State. August 2, 2016. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
^ Mason, Tori (December 1, 2015). "Topeka native announces candidacy for U.S. Senate". WIBW. Archived from the original on March 11, 2016. Retrieved March 10, 2016.
^ Clarkin, Mary (February 4, 2016). "Democrat Patrick Wiesner files for Jerry Moran's Senate seat". The Hutchinson News. Archived from the original on October 3, 2016. Retrieved February 5, 2016.
^ ^a ^b ^c Helling, Dave (November 12, 2015). "Kansas Democrats see an opening but fear they can't take advantage". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved March 22, 2016.
^ Sullivan, Sean (April 11, 2014). "Why Kathleen Sebelius's political career is (probably) over". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 17, 2014.
^ Kraske, Steve (January 20, 2015). "Kathleen Sebelius criticizes Gov. Sam Brownback's vision for Kansas". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved May 30, 2015.
^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ Fort Hays State University
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ KSN News/SurveyUSA
^ KSN News/SurveyUSA
^ KSN News/SurveyUSA
^ KSN News/SurveyUSA
^ ^a ^b KSN News/SurveyUSA
^ Public Policy Polling
^ "2016 General Election Official Results" (PDF). Kansas Secretary of State. November 8, 2016. Retrieved January 3, 2017.
^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 20, 2024.

External links

Official campaign websites

[timopen-1] Alexis Levinson (November 19, 2014). "Huelskamp Open to Moran Primary Challenge". Roll Call. Archived from the original on November 21, 2014. Retrieved November 19, 2014.

[deadline-2] Wingerter, Justin (June 2, 2016). "Rep. Lynn Jenkins drops a challenger, Sen. Jerry Moran gains one at the filing deadline". Topeka Capital-Journal. Retrieved June 2, 2016.

[3] Alexis Levinson (January 8, 2015). "Congressman Says Wife Nixed Senate Run". Roll Call. Archived from the original on January 8, 2015. Retrieved January 8, 2015.

[4] Clarkin, Mary (April 5, 2016). "Pompeo doesn't rule out a Senate race while criticizing Moran". Hays Daily News. Retrieved April 5, 2016.

[16in16-5] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.

[6] Clarkin, Mary (April 27, 2015). "Ex-Congressman Tiahrt bound for D.C. lobbying firm". The Hutchinson News. Retrieved May 30, 2015.

[7] Alexis Levinson (July 29, 2014). "In Kansas, Conservatives Suffer From Mississippi Hangover". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 4, 2014. Retrieved September 11, 2014.

[8] Wingerter, Justin (November 3, 2015). "Prospective 2016 U.S. Senate contender Milton Wolf tries to terminate his campaign committee". The Topeka Capital-Journal. Retrieved November 11, 2015.

[9] Kraske, Steve (February 19, 2016). "Milton Wolf hints, but won't commit, to another race this year for the U.S. Senate from Kansas". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved March 22, 2016.

[10] Public Opinion Strategies (R-Moran)

[Primaryelection-11] "2016 Official Primary Results". Kansas Secretary of State. August 2, 2016. Retrieved November 18, 2016.

[12] Mason, Tori (December 1, 2015). "Topeka native announces candidacy for U.S. Senate". WIBW. Archived from the original on March 11, 2016. Retrieved March 10, 2016.

[13] Clarkin, Mary (February 4, 2016). "Democrat Patrick Wiesner files for Jerry Moran's Senate seat". The Hutchinson News. Archived from the original on October 3, 2016. Retrieved February 5, 2016.

[democratsopening-14] Helling, Dave (November 12, 2015). "Kansas Democrats see an opening but fear they can't take advantage". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved March 22, 2016.

[15] Sullivan, Sean (April 11, 2014). "Why Kathleen Sebelius's political career is (probably) over". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 17, 2014.

[16] Kraske, Steve (January 20, 2015). "Kathleen Sebelius criticizes Gov. Sam Brownback's vision for Kansas". The Kansas City Star. Retrieved May 30, 2015.

[17] "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.

[18] "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.

[19] "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.

[20] "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.

[21] "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.

[22] SurveyMonkey

[23] SurveyMonkey

[24] Fort Hays State University

[25] SurveyMonkey

[26] SurveyMonkey

[27] SurveyMonkey

[28] SurveyMonkey

[29] KSN News/SurveyUSA

[30] KSN News/SurveyUSA

[31] KSN News/SurveyUSA

[32] KSN News/SurveyUSA

[KSN_News/SurveyUSA-33] KSN News/SurveyUSA

[34] Public Policy Polling

[Generalelection-35] "2016 General Election Official Results" (PDF). Kansas Secretary of State. November 8, 2016. Retrieved January 3, 2017.

[36] "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 20, 2024.

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