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2016 United States presidential election in North Dakota

Main article: 2016 United States presidential election
2016 United States presidential election in North Dakota
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout61.29% Increase
 
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Gary Johnson
Party Republican Democratic–NPL Libertarian
Home state New York New York New Mexico
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine Bill Weld
Electoral vote 3 0 0
Popular vote 216,794 93,758 21,434
Percentage 62.96% 27.23% 6.22%
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic-NPL

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county
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The 2016 United States presidential election in North Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]

On June 7, 2016, as part of the Democratic Party presidential primaries, North Dakota voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic nominees for president. As North Dakota does not have a voter registration system,[2] all voters could choose to participate in this caucus. Due to a disagreement about the binding of delegates between state and national party leaders, no Republican Party primary or caucus was held. Instead, delegates were chosen at the state party convention April 1–3.[3]

Trump won the election in North Dakota with 63.0% of the vote, making it his fourth-strongest state in the 2016 election, after West Virginia, Wyoming, and Oklahoma.[4] Clinton received 27.2% of the vote.[5] This makes it the largest loss by a Democrat since Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter in 1980. The state also gave North Dakota-born Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson his second-best showing with 6.2% of the vote, only behind the 9.3% vote share that he received in his home state of New Mexico.

Caucuses

Democratic caucus

Three candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:

Main article: 2016 North Dakota Democratic presidential caucuses
North Dakota Democratic caucuses, June 7, 2016
Candidate District delegates State delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 253 64.21% 13 1 14
Hillary Clinton 101 25.63% 5 1 6
Uncommitted 40 10.15% 0 0 0
Total 394 100% 18 5 23
Source: [6]

Republican convention

The North Dakota Republican Party did not hold a presidential preference caucus or primary, but instead selected 28 Republican National Convention delegates unpledged to any particular candidate at the state party convention, which was held April 1–3, 2016.[3] A generally pro-Cruz slate of delegates was elected to the convention.[7] Cruz had the support of 14 delegates before he dropped out of the race. Three of them switched to Trump on May 27 along with all 13 of the uncommitted delegates giving Trump the majority of commitments and the support of 17 delegates (Trump had the support of 1 delegate before Cruz dropped out).

North Dakota Republican state convention, April 1–3, 2016
Candidate Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 0 17 17
Ted Cruz 0 11 11
John Kasich 0 0 0
(available) 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 0 28 28
Source: The Green Papers

General election

Voting history

North Dakota joined the Union in November 1889 and has participated in all elections from 1892 onwards.

Since 1900, North Dakota voted Democratic 17.24 percent of the time and Republican 82.76 percent of the time.

Since 1968, the state has always voted Republican.

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for North Dakota as of Election Day.

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[8] Safe R November 6, 2016
CNN[9] Safe R November 8, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10] Safe R November 7, 2016
NBC[11] Likely R November 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics[12] Safe R November 8, 2016
Fox News[13] Safe R November 7, 2016
ABC[14] Safe R November 7, 2016

Results

2016 United States presidential election in North Dakota[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican
216,794 62.96
Democratic–NPL
93,758 27.23
Libertarian
21,434 6.22
Green
3,780 1.10
Constitution
1,833 0.53
American Delta
364 0.11
Write-in 6,397 1.86
Total votes 344,360 100%
Republican hold

By county

Results by county were as follows.[16][17]

County Donald Trump
Republican 		Hillary Clinton
Democratic-NPL 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 909 74.63% 216 17.73% 93 7.64% 693 56.90% 1,218
Barnes 3,160 59.13% 1,597 29.88% 587 10.99% 1,563 29.25% 5,344
Benson 929 46.20% 842 41.87% 240 11.93% 87 4.33% 2,011
Billings 495 81.82% 59 9.75% 51 8.43% 436 72.07% 605
Bottineau 2,494 71.38% 736 21.06% 264 7.56% 1,758 50.32% 3,494
Bowman 1,446 80.92% 227 12.70% 114 6.38% 1,219 68.22% 1,787
Burke 895 85.08% 119 11.31% 38 3.61% 776 73.77% 1,052
Burleigh 32,532 67.80% 10,881 22.68% 4,566 9.52% 21,651 45.12% 47,979
Cass 39,816 49.26% 31,361 38.80% 9,644 11.94% 8,455 10.46% 80,821
Cavalier 1,357 67.65% 476 23.73% 173 8.62% 881 43.92% 2,006
Dickey 1,667 69.26% 554 23.02% 186 7.72% 1,113 46.24% 2,407
Divide 867 71.12% 245 20.10% 107 8.78% 622 51.02% 1,219
Dunn 1,771 78.96% 358 15.96% 114 5.08% 1,413 63.00% 2,243
Eddy 791 64.26% 355 28.84% 85 6.90% 436 35.42% 1,231
Emmons 1,677 84.65% 215 10.85% 89 4.50% 1,462 73.80% 1,981
Foster 1,241 72.19% 347 20.19% 131 7.62% 894 52.00% 1,719
Golden Valley 796 83.18% 99 10.34% 62 6.48% 697 72.84% 957
Grand Forks 16,340 53.81% 10,851 35.74% 3,174 10.45% 5,489 18.07% 30,365
Grant 1,108 80.23% 185 13.40% 88 6.37% 923 66.83% 1,381
Griggs 847 66.96% 298 23.56% 120 9.48% 549 43.40% 1,265
Hettinger 1,050 81.02% 168 12.96% 78 6.02% 882 68.06% 1,296
Kidder 1,111 80.74% 179 13.01% 86 6.25% 932 67.73% 1,376
LaMoure 1,481 68.85% 502 23.34% 168 7.81% 979 45.51% 2,151
Logan 888 83.22% 114 10.68% 65 6.10% 774 72.54% 1,067
McHenry 2,050 72.70% 490 17.38% 280 9.92% 1,560 55.32% 2,820
McIntosh 1,100 76.07% 235 16.25% 111 7.68% 865 59.82% 1,446
McKenzie 3,670 78.55% 698 14.94% 304 6.51% 2,972 63.61% 4,672
McLean 3,860 72.62% 1,081 20.34% 374 7.04% 2,779 52.28% 5,315
Mercer 3,759 80.29% 621 13.26% 302 6.45% 3,138 67.03% 4,682
Morton 11,336 71.60% 3,080 19.45% 1,416 8.95% 8,256 52.15% 15,832
Mountrail 2,582 62.88% 1,220 29.71% 304 7.41% 1,362 33.17% 4,106
Nelson 1,025 59.70% 536 31.22% 156 9.08% 489 28.48% 1,717
Oliver 830 81.61% 119 11.70% 68 6.69% 711 69.91% 1,017
Pembina 2,208 70.03% 681 21.60% 264 8.37% 1,527 48.43% 3,153
Pierce 1,437 69.39% 431 20.81% 203 9.80% 1,006 48.58% 2,071
Ramsey 3,217 60.64% 1,505 28.37% 583 10.99% 1,712 32.27% 5,305
Ransom 1,210 51.29% 838 35.52% 311 13.19% 372 15.77% 2,359
Renville 993 76.80% 201 15.55% 99 7.65% 792 61.25% 1,293
Richland 4,767 62.79% 2,064 27.19% 761 10.02% 2,703 35.60% 7,592
Rolette 1,217 32.41% 2,099 55.90% 439 11.69% -882 -23.49% 3,755
Sargent 1,088 54.48% 694 34.75% 215 10.77% 394 19.73% 1,997
Sheridan 650 82.59% 95 12.07% 42 5.34% 555 70.52% 787
Sioux 260 21.10% 758 61.53% 214 17.37% -498 -40.43% 1,232
Slope 362 84.19% 43 10.00% 25 5.81% 319 74.19% 430
Stark 9,755 79.17% 1,753 14.23% 814 6.60% 8,002 64.94% 12,322
Steele 538 53.85% 361 36.14% 100 10.01% 177 17.71% 999
Stutsman 6,718 66.15% 2,498 24.60% 939 9.25% 4,220 41.55% 10,155
Towner 733 63.35% 305 26.36% 119 10.29% 428 36.99% 1,157
Traill 2,265 57.59% 1,241 31.55% 427 10.86% 1,024 26.04% 3,933
Walsh 2,995 64.60% 1,167 25.17% 474 10.23% 1,828 39.43% 4,636
Ward 18,636 67.98% 5,806 21.18% 2,970 10.84% 12,830 46.80% 27,412
Wells 1,796 75.37% 419 17.58% 168 7.05% 1,377 57.79% 2,383
Williams 10,069 78.62% 1,735 13.55% 1,003 7.83% 8,334 65.07% 12,807
Totals 216,794 62.96% 93,758 27.23% 33,808 9.81% 123,036 35.73% 344,360
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[18]

By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district is called the At-Large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

District Trump Clinton Representative
At-large 62.96% 27.23% Kevin Cramer

Analysis

Republican nominee Donald Trump won North Dakota in a 36-percentage-point victory over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, thus carrying the state's 3 electoral votes.[19] Like many neighboring majority-white, largely rural Great Plains and prairie states, North Dakota has not supported a Democratic candidate for president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

North Dakota politics are dominated by the farm, with a largely white and older populace who are socially conservative. Though the state's farming population has briefly flirted with populism, that movement is now mostly faded from North Dakota politics, as farms in North Dakota are no longer tilled by solitary yeoman and are no longer family-owned as much, and are replaced by agribusinesses.[20]

In recent presidential elections, Bakken shale oil has been a major driver of conservative success in the state, as its economy is increasingly fueled by the North Dakota oil boom and its population grows suspect of the environmental movement championed by Democrats. The main oil boom has taken place in the counties west and northwest of Bismarck, where Donald Trump won sometimes north of 80% of the vote.[20]

Donald Trump won in Grand Forks County which contains the city of Grand Forks, in Cass County which contains the city of Fargo, and in Burliegh County which contains the capital city of Bismarck. He also swept most of the rural and deeply conservative counties of the state, sometimes taking more than 80% of the vote in a county. Clinton won resoundingly in Sioux County, which is majority Native American and is the site of the Dakota Access Pipeline Protest by its inhabitants, the Sioux Indian tribe.

See also

References

  1. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved December 14, 2020.
  2. ^ Jaeger, Alvin. "North Dakota...The Only State Without Voter Registration" (PDF).
  3. ^ a b Nowatzki, Mike. "With ND Republicans unable to cast votes for presidential nominee, Cramer launches online straw poll". Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  4. ^ "2016 Presidential Election Statistics". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved March 5, 2018.
  5. ^ "North Dakota Election Results 2016". The New York Times. August 2017.
  6. ^ The Green Papers
  7. ^ "North Dakota Republican Delegation 2016".
  8. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  9. ^ "Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  10. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  11. ^ Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  12. ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  13. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  14. ^ "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". Abcnews.go.com. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  15. ^ North Dakota Secretary of State (November 18, 2016). "Official 2016 General Election Results – Statewide". Retrieved November 14, 2021.
  16. ^ "Secretary of State - Election Night Results". results.sos.nd.gov. Retrieved June 18, 2017.
  17. ^ "Secretary of State - Voter Turnout". results.sos.nd.gov. Retrieved June 18, 2017.
  18. ^ Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  19. ^ "North Dakota Election Results 2016". The New York Times. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
  20. ^ a b Cohen, Micah (October 14, 2012). "An Extra Ingredient in North Dakota Politics: Oil". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
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