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2016 Vermont gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2016 United States gubernatorial elections.

2016 Vermont gubernatorial election
← 2014 November 8, 2016 2018 →
 
Nominee Phil Scott Sue Minter
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 166,817 139,253
Percentage 52.90% 44.17%
Scott:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Minter:      40-50%      50-60%      60–70%      70–80%
Tie:      40–50%
Governor before election

Peter Shumlin
Democratic

Elected Governor

Phil Scott
Republican

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The 2016 Vermont gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, and elected the governor of Vermont, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic governor Peter Shumlin was eligible to run for re-election to a fourth term in office, but opted to retire instead.[1]

The primaries were held on August 9.[2] Former Vermont Agency of Transportation Secretary Sue Minter won the Democratic nomination, and Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott won the Republican primary,[3] with Scott defeating Minter in the general election. This was the first gubernatorial election in Vermont in which the winner was of a different party than the incumbent president since 1992.

Background

Two-term Democratic governor Peter Shumlin ran for re-election in 2014 and was widely expected to win easily. However, he only took a plurality of the vote, 46.36%, to Republican Scott Milne's 45.1%, and thus the result was decided by the Vermont General Assembly. The Assembly picked Shumlin by 110 votes to 69. Shumlin announced in June 2015 that he would not run for a fourth term.[4]

Vermont and New Hampshire are the only states in the country whose governors are elected every two years.

Democratic primary

In August, Vermont House Speaker Shap Smith announced that he would be a candidate,[5] but ended his candidacy in November 2015, after his wife was diagnosed with breast cancer.[6] In September, Matt Dunne announced that he would also be a candidate.[7] Also in September, former state legislator Sue Minter, then serving as Vermont's Secretary of Transportation, announced that she would resign her position in order to join the Democratic race.[8] Former ambassador Peter Galbraith announced his candidacy in March 2016.[9]

In July, H. Brook Paige was excluded from official Democratic Party events after making derogatory comments on social media.[10]

Minter won the nomination decisively, and was endorsed by Dunne but not Galbraith.[11]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Matt Dunne

Individuals
Current legislators

  • Tom Ayres, (D), Burlington City Council member[23]
  • John Bartholomew, representative from Hartland[24]
  • Philip Baruth, Senate Majority Leader from Chittenden County[24]
  • Steve Berry, representative from Manchester[24]
  • Tim Briglin, representative from Thetford[24]
  • Robin Chestnut-Tangerman, representative from Middletown Springs[24]
  • Kevin "Coach" Christie, representative from Hartford[24]
  • Alison Clarkson, representative from Woodstock[24]
  • Selene Colburn (P), Burlington City Council member[25]
  • Dan Connor, representative from Fairfield[24]
  • Susan Hatch Davis, representative from Washington[24]
  • Bill Frank, representative from Underhill[24]
  • Sara Giannoni (P), Burlington City Council member[25]
  • Jane Knodell (P), Burlington City Council President[25]
  • Gabrielle Lucke, representative from White River Junction[24]
  • Chip Mason (D), Burlington City Council member[23]
  • Dick McCormack, senator from Windsor County[24]
  • Mark McDonald, senator from Orange County[24]
  • Barbara Rachelson, representative from Burlington[24]
  • Adam Roof (I), Burlington City Council member[23]
  • Donna Sweaney, representative from Windsor[24]
  • Max Tracy (P), Burlington City Council member[25]
  • Tommy Walz, representative from Barre[24]
  • Sam Young, representative from Glover[24]
  • Teo Zagar, representative from Barnard[24]

Former legislators

  • Judith Stephany Ahearn, senator from Chittenden County[24]
  • Sandy Baird, representative from Burlington[24]
  • Joyce Barbieri, representative from Wallingford[24]
  • Chuck Bohi, representative from Hartford[24]
  • Gordon Bristol, representative from Brattleboro[24]
  • Carol Buchdahl, representative from Georgia[24]
  • Jack Candon, representative from Norwich[24]
  • Mary Ann Carlson, senator from Bennington County[24]
  • Diane Carmolli, representative from Rutland City[24]
  • Matt Choate, senator from Caledonia County[24]
  • Andrew Christiansen, representative from East Montpelier[24]
  • Wendell Coleman, representative from Londonderry[24]
  • Don Collins, senator from Franklin County[24]
  • Michel Consejo, representative from Swanton[24]
  • Thomas Costello, representative from Brattleboro[24]
  • Barbara Grimes, representative from Burlington[24]
  • Christopher Healy, representative from Norwich[24]
  • Steve Hingtgen, representative from Burlington[24]
  • Cheryl Hooker, representative from Rutland City[24]
  • Margaret Hummel, representative from Underhill[24]
  • Michael Klopchin, representative from Clarendon[24]
  • Alysia Krasnow Butler, representative from Charlotte[24]
  • Jerry Kreitzer, representative from Rutland City[24]
  • Doris Lingelbach, representative from Thetford[24]
  • Mary Mazzariello, representative from Rutland City[24]
  • Hinda Miller, senator from Chittenden County[24]
  • Anne Mook, representative from Bennington[24]
  • Donny Osman, representative from Plainfield[24]
  • Mary-Ann Parizo, representative from Essex[24]
  • Dexter Randall, representative from Newport[24]
  • Cheryl Rivers, senator from Windsor County[24]
  • Ann Seibert, representative from Norwich[24]
  • Ernest Shand, representative from Weathersfield[24]
  • Andrew Snyder, representative from Pittsford[24]
  • Bob Stannard, representative from Manchester[24]
  • Sheila Vowinkel, representative from Hartford[24]
  • Perry Waite, representative from Pawlett[24]
  • Linda Waite-Simpson, representative from Essex[24]
  • Cindy Weed, representative from Enosburg[24]
  • Jeff Young, representative from St. Albans[24]

Organizations

Newspapers

Sue Minter

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

  • The Manchester Journal[36]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Matt
Dunne 		Sue
Minter 		Peter
Galbraith 		Other/Undecided
Energy Independent Vermont[37] June 26–29, 2016 217 ± 6.7% 31% 36% 8% 25%
Castleton Polling Institute[38] February 3–17, 2016 895 ± 3.27% 19% 11% – 69%

Results

Democratic primary results[39]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sue Minter 35,979 51.20%
Democratic Matt Dunne 26,699 38.00%
Democratic Peter Galbraith 6,616 9.40%
Democratic Cris Ericson 538 0.80%
Democratic H. Brooke Paige 387 0.60%
Democratic Write-ins 579 1.84%
Total votes 70,798 100.00%

Republican primary

In September 2015, Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott entered the race,[40] and 2014 gubernatorial nominee Scott Milne, who had been considering running, endorsed Scott.[41] In October 2015, retired Wall Street executive Bruce Lisman officially announced his "outsider" candidacy.[42]

Scott was endorsed by most active Vermont Republican politicians, and held a strong lead in a February poll.[43][44] Lisman's campaign criticized Scott for being too closely connected to outgoing Democratic governor Peter Shumlin and for "plagiarizing" Lisman's ideas, and linked Scott to the "failures" of the Vermont Health Connect insurance platform and the school redistricting Act 46;[45][46][47] the candidates' campaigns disagreed over whether this constituted "negative campaigning," and Scott's campaign said the attacks were "patently false".[45]

Scott won the nomination by a large margin.[48]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Phil Scott

Vermont state officials

  • Randy Brock, former Vermont state auditor and state senator (R-Franklin), and candidate for lieutenant governor [53]
  • Jim Douglas, former governor of Vermont[54]

Vermont state senators

  • Joe Benning, Vermont Senate minority leader (R-Caledonia)[55]
  • Brian Collamore, Vermont Senate assistant minority leader (R-Rutland)[43]
  • John Crowley, former Vermont state senator (R-Rutland)[53]
  • Judy Bloomer Crowley, former Vermont state senator (R-Rutland)[53]
  • Dustin Allard Degree, Vermont state senator (R-Franklin)[43]
  • William T. Doyle, Vermont state senator (R-Washington)[43]
  • Margaret Flory, Vermont state senator (R-Rutland)[43]
  • Jim Greenwood, former Vermont state senator (R-Essex/Orleans)[53]
  • Hull Maynard, former Vermont state senator (R-Rutland)[53]
  • Dick Mazza, state senator (D-Grand Isle)[56]
  • Kevin Mullin, Vermont state senator (R-Rutland)[43]
  • Helen Riehle, Vermont state senator (R-Chittenden)[43]
  • Richard Westman, Vermont state senator (R-Lamoille)[43]

Vermont state representatives

  • Steve Adams, former Vermont state representative (R-Hartland)[53]
  • Robert Bancroft, Vermont state representative (R-Westford)[43]
  • Fred Baser, Vermont state representative (R-Bristol)[43]
  • Lynn Batchelor, Vermont state representative (R-Derby Line)[43]
  • Scott Beck, Vermont state representative (R-St. Johnsbury)[43]
  • Steven Beyor, Vermont state representative (R-Highgate Springs)[43]
  • David Bolduc, former Vermont state representative (R-Barton)[53]
  • Donald Bostic, former Vermont state representative (R-St. Johnsbury)[53]
  • Carolyn Branagan, Vermont state representative (R-Georgia)[43]
  • Patrick Brennan, Vermont state representative (R-Colchester)[43]
  • David Brown, former Vermont state representative (R-Walden)[53]
  • Thomas Burditt, Vermont state representative (R-West Rutland)[43]
  • William Canfield, Vermont state representative (R-Fair Haven)[43]
  • Howard Crawford, former Vermont state representative (R-St. Johnsbury)[53]
  • Lawrence Cupoli, Vermont state representative (R-Rutland City)[43]
  • Dennis Devereux, Vermont state representative (R-Belmont)[43]
  • Eileen Dickinson, Vermont state representative (R-St. Albans)[43]
  • Anne Donahue, Vermont state representative (R-Northfield)[43]
  • Joyce Errecart, former Vermont state representative (R-St. Shelburne)[53]
  • Peter Fagan, Vermont state representative (R-Rutland City)[43]
  • Martha Feltus, Vermont state representative (R-Lyndonville)[43]
  • Larry Fiske, Vermont state representative (R-Enosburg Falls)[43]
  • John Follett, former Vermont state representative (R-Springfield)[53]
  • Walt Freed, former speaker of the Vermont House of Representatives (R-Dorset)[53]
  • Marianna Gamache, Vermont state representative (R-Swanton)[43]
  • Rodney Graham, Vermont state representative (R-Williamstown)[43]
  • Michael Hebert, Vermont state representative (R-Vernon)[43]
  • Robert Helm, Vermont state representative (R-Fair Haven)[43]
  • Mark Higley, Vermont state representative (R-Lowell)[43]
  • Connie Houston, former Vermont state representative (R-Ferrisburgh)[53]
  • Adam Howard, former Vermont state representative (R-St. Cambridge)[53]
  • Ronald Hubert, Vermont state representative (R-Milton)[43]
  • Bernard Juskiewicz, Vermont state representative (R-Cambridge)[43]
  • Duncan Kilmartin, former Vermont state representative (R-Newport)[53]
  • Tom Koch, former Vermont state representative (R-Barre Town)[53]
  • Patti Komline, Vermont state representative (R-Dorset)[43]
  • Robert LaClair, Vermont state representative (R-Barre Town)[43]
  • Cathy Lamberton, former Vermont state representative (R-St. Morristown)[53]
  • Richard Lawrence, Vermont state representative (R-Lyndonville)[43]
  • Paul Lefebvre, Vermont state representative (R-Island Pond)[43]
  • Patti Lewis, Vermont state representative (R-Berlin)[43]
  • Robert Lewis Jr., former Vermont state representative (R-Derby)[53]
  • Judy Livingston, former Vermont state representative (R-Manchester)[53]
  • Michael Marcotte, Vermont state representative (R-Newport)[43]
  • Richard "Dick" Marron, former Vermont state representative (R-Stowe)[53]
  • Marcia Martel, Vermont state representative (R-Waterford)[43]
  • Frank Mazur, former Vermont state representative (R-St. South Burlington)[53]
  • Patricia McCoy, Vermont state representative (R-Orleans)[43]
  • Francis McFaun, Vermont state representative (R-Barre Town)[43]
  • John Morley III, former Vermont state representative (R-Newport)[53]
  • Linda Myers, Vermont state representative (R-Essex Junction)[43]
  • Allen Palmer, former Vermont state representative (R-Pownal)[53]
  • Corey Parent, Vermont state representative (R-St. Albans)[43]
  • Albert Pearce, Vermont state representative (R-Richford)[43]
  • Janice Peaslee, former Vermont state representative (R-St. Guildhall)[53]
  • Joey Purvis, Vermont state representative (R-Colchester)[43]
  • Constance Quimby, Vermont state representative (R-Concord)[43]
  • Gary Reis, former Vermont state representative (R-St. Johnsbury)[53]
  • Carl Rosenquist, former Vermont state representative (R-St. Georgia)[53]
  • Brian K. Savage, Vermont House assistant minority leader (R-Swanton)[43]
  • Heidi Scheuermann, Vermont state representative (R-Stowe)[43]
  • Butch Shaw, Vermont state representative (R-Florence)[43]
  • Loren Shaw, Vermont state representative (R-Derby)[43]
  • Harvey Smith, Vermont state representative (R-New Haven)[43]
  • Vicki Strong, Vermont state representative (R-Irasburg)[43]
  • Thomas Terenzini, Vermont state representative (R-Rutland Town)[43]
  • Warren Van Wyck, Vermont state representative (R-Ferrisburgh)[43]
  • Gary Viens, Vermont state representative (R-Newport)[43]
  • Scott Wheeler, former Vermont state representative (R-Newport)[53]
  • Janssenn Willhoit, Vermont state representative (R-St. Johnsbury)[43]
  • Kurt Wright, Vermont state representative (R-Burlington)[43]
  • Mark Young, former Vermont state representative (R-Orwell)[53]

Organizations

  • Vermont Police Association[57]
  • Vermont Realtors Association[58]
  • Vermont Sheriffs' Association[59]
  • Vermont Troopers Association[60]
  • Vermont Vehicle and Automotive Distributors Association[61]

Vermont businesspeople

Newspapers

  • The Addison Independent[63]
  • The Burlington Free Press[64]
  • The Manchester Journal[36]
  • The Stowe Reporter[65]

Vermont Republican Party officials

  • Jackie Barnett, former VT GOP secretary[53]
  • Jim Barnett, former VT GOP chair[53]
  • Suzanne Butterfield, former Windsor County GOP chair[53]
  • Paul T. Carroccio, former VT GOP chair[53]
  • Mary Daly, Orange County GOP chair[53]
  • Josh Fitzhugh, Washington County GOP chair[53]
  • John Kascenska, Caledonia County GOP chair[53]
  • Steve Larabee, former VT GOP chair and former Vermont state representative (R-Danville)[53]
  • Brent Smith, Groton Town GOP chair[53]

Vermont Republican candidates

  • Buddy Barnett, former candidate for the Vermont State Senate[53]
  • Mike Doyle, candidate for the Vermont State Senate[53]
  • Riki French, candidate for the Vermont House of Representatives[53]
  • Jason Gibbs, former Republican nominee for Vermont Secretary of State[53]
  • Bruce Melendy, candidate for the Vermont House of Representatives[53]
  • Gary Nolan, candidate for the Vermont House of Representatives[53]
  • Kate Purcell, former candidate for the Vermont State Senate[53]
  • Craig Vance, candidate for the Vermont House of Representatives[53]
Bruce Lisman

Individuals

  • Milt Eaton (R), former secretary of the Vermont Development and Community Affairs, former Department of Energy foreign attache[66]
  • Patty O'Donnell, former Vermont state representative (R-Windham-1)[66]
  • Job Tate, Vermont state representative (R-Rutland-Windsor)[67]

Businesspeople

  • Steve Forbes, businessman and candidate for Republican presidential nominee in 1996 and 2000[68]

On May 6, 2016, Scott received the endorsements of all Vermont Republican legislators (listed above) except state representatives Donald Turner, Doug Gage, Mary Morrissey, Job Tate, and Paul Dame.[69] Among those five legislators who did not endorse Scott, four said they always remain neutral in a party primary election, and one was waiting until after the filing deadline to make an endorsement.[70]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Phil
Scott 		Bruce
Lisman 		Other/Undecided
Energy Independent Vermont[37] June 26–29, 2016 171 ± 7.5% 68% 23% 9%
Castleton Polling Institute[38] February 3–17, 2016 895 ± 3.27% 42% 4% 53%

Results

Republican primary results[39]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Phil Scott 27,669 60.50%
Republican Bruce Lisman 18,055 39.50%
Republican Write-ins 48 0.22%
Total votes 45,772 100.00%

Liberty Union primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Liberty Union primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Liberty Union Bill "Spaceman" Lee 6 100.00%
Total votes 6 100%

General election

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[72] Tossup August 12, 2016
Daily Kos[73] Tossup November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[74] Tilt R (flip) November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[75] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[76] Tossup November 1, 2016
Governing[77] Tossup October 27, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Sue
Minter (D) 		Phil
Scott (R) 		Bill
Lee (LU) 		Undecided
SurveyMonkey[78] November 1–7, 2016 454 ± 4.6% 51% 47% — 2%
SurveyMonkey[79] October 31–November 6, 2016 447 ± 4.6% 50% 48% — 2%
SurveyMonkey[80] October 28–November 3, 2016 449 ± 4.6% 46% 51% — 3%
SurveyMonkey[81] October 27–November 2, 2016 424 ± 4.6% 44% 53% — 3%
SurveyMonkey[82] October 26–November 1, 2016 428 ± 4.6% 43% 54% — 3%
SurveyMonkey[83] October 25–31, 2016 436 ± 4.6% 45% 52% — 3%
RRH Elections[84] October 24–26, 2016 1,052 ± 3.0% 38% 45% 4% 13%
Braun Research/WCAX[85] October 19–22, 2016 603 ± 4.0% 40% 47% 6% 9%
Castleton University - Vermont Public Radio[86] September 29–October 14, 2016 579 ± 3.9% 38% 39% 7% 14%

Results

2016 Vermont gubernatorial election[87]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Phil Scott 166,817 52.90% +7.80%
Democratic Sue Minter 139,253 44.17% −2.19%
Liberty Union Bill Lee 8,912 2.83% +1.96%
Write-in 313 0.10% -0.27%
Total votes 315,295 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

References

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Official candidate websites

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