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2020 Florida Senate election

2020 Florida Senate election
← 2018 November 3, 2020 (2020-11-03) 2022 →
20 of the 40 seats in the Florida Senate
21 seats needed for a majority
Turnout38.62%
  Majority party Minority party
 
Leader Wilton Simpson Audrey Gibson
Party Republican Democratic
Leader since November 26, 2018 November 19, 2018
Leader's seat 10th-Trilby 6th-Jacksonville
Last election 23 seats, 53.99% 17 seats, 45.74%
Seats won 24 16
Seat change Increase 1 Decrease 1
Popular vote 2,663,076 2,642,318
Percentage 49.03% 48.65%
Swing Decrease 4.96% Increase 2.91%
Results:
     Republican gain
     Republican hold      Democratic hold
     No election
President before election

Bill Galvano
Republican

Elected President

Wilton Simpson
Republican

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Government

The 2020 elections for the Florida Senate took place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, to elect state senators from 20 of 40 districts. The Republican Party has held a Senate majority since 1995. The result was a one-seat gain for the Republicans, thus maintaining their majority.[1]

The elections for U.S. President, U.S. House of Representatives, and the Florida House of Representatives were also held on this date.[2]

Republican operatives, supported by Florida Power & Light,[3] ran sham ghost candidates in three races. In District 37, former senator Frank Artiles had Alex Rodriguez placed on the ballot to successfully siphon votes from Senator José Javier Rodríguez.[4] Both Artiles and Alex Rodriguez were charged and fined for electoral fraud.[5]

Competitive races

The most competitive races are expected to be the Democratic-held open Senate District 3 in North Florida, the Republican-held open District 9 to the northeast of Orlando, the special election in the Tampa area's open Republican-held District 20, the Democratic-held Senate District 37 in South Florida, and the Republican-held open District 39 in South Florida.[6][7]

2016 Presidential Results[8] and 2020 Candidates in Competitive Races:

Senate district Clinton 2016 vote share Trump 2016 vote share 2020 Democratic nominee 2020 Republican nominee
District 3 52.60% Clinton 43.95% Trump Loranne Ausley Marva Harris Preston
District 9 45.98% Clinton 49.87% Trump Patricia Sigman Jason Brodeur
District 20 43.99% Clinton 52.28% Trump Kathy Lewis Danny Burgess
District 37 59.55% Clinton 37.89% Trump José Javier Rodríguez Ileana Garcia
District 39 53.74% Clinton 43.49% Trump Javier Fernandez Ana Maria Rodriguez

Overview

Party Votes % Seats
Total
before 		Up Won Total
after 		+/−
Republican Party of Florida 2,663,076 49.03 23 10 11 24 +1
Florida Democratic Party 2,642,318 48.65 17 10 9 16 -1
Independent 125,497 2.31 0 0 0 0 -
Write-in 603 0.01 0 0 0 0 -
Total 5,431,494 100.00 40 20 20 40 ±0
Source: Florida Division of Elections[9][10]
Popular vote
Republican
 
 49.03%
Democratic
 
 48.65%
Other
 
 2.32%
House seats
Republican
 
 60%
Democratic
 
 40%

Closest races

Seats where the margin of victory was under 10%:

  1. District 37, 0.02% gain
  2. District 9, 2.7%
  3. District 3, 6.8%
  4. District 20, 9.6%

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[11] Lean R October 21, 2020

Primary election polling

District 27 - Republican

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Heather
Fitzhagen 		Ray
Rodriguez 		Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[12] July 28, 2020 463 (LV) ± 4.6% 18% 59% 23%
Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen[13][A] July 20, 2020 1,229 (LV) ± 3% 22% 44% 34%
Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen[14][A] June 18–19, 2020 460 (LV) ± 4.5% 34% 24% 42%

District 29 - Democratic

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Tina
Polsky 		Irving "Irv"
Slosberg 		Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[15] August 14, 2020 477 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 37% 13%

District 39 - Democratic

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Javier E.
Fernandez 		Daniel "Dan"
Horton-Diaz 		Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[16] August 1–2, 2020 203 (LV) ± 6.9% 24% 16% 61%

Retiring incumbents

Democrats

Republicans

General election polling

District 3

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Loranne
Ausley (D) 		Marva
Preston (R) 		Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[17] October 17–18, 2020 948 (LV) – 51% 44% 5%
ALG Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[18][B] October 15, 2020 503 (V) – 48% 40% –

District 9

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jason
Brodeur (R) 		Patricia
Sigman (D) 		Jestine
Ianotti (I) 		Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[19] October 31 – November 1, 2020 522 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 49% 2% 7%
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[20] October 17–18, 2020 490 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 52% – 5%
GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[21][C] October 16, 2020 400 (V) – 42% 42% – –

District 20

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Danny
Burgess (R) 		Kathy
Lewis (D) 		Undecided
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics[22] October 24–25, 2020 644 (LV) ± 3.9% 45% 44% 12%

District 37

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		José Javier
Rodríguez (D) 		Ileana
Garcia (R)
SEA Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[23][D] October 13, 2020 400 (V) – 42% 37%

District 39

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ana Maria
Rodriguez (R) 		Javier
Fernandez (D)
GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC[24][E] October 9, 2020 503 (V) – 43% 43%
Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC[25] September 8–11, 2020 – (V)[b] – 37% 31%
Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC[26] July, 2020 – (V)[c] – 31% 28%

Results

District 1 • District 3 • District 5 • District 7 • District 9 • District 11 • District 13 • District 15 • District 17 • District 19 • District 20 • District 21 • District 23 • District 25 • District 27 • District 29 • District 31 • District 35 • District 37 • District 39

[27]

District 1

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Douglas V. Broxson 185,380 65.3%
Democratic Karen M. Butler 98,407 34.7%
Total votes 293,787 100%
Republican hold

District 3

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Loranne Ausley 137,609 53.4%
Republican Marva Harris Preston 120,176 46.6%
Total votes 257,785 100%
Democratic hold

District 5

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jennifer Bradley 194,198 74.8%
Democratic Stacey L. Peters 65,568 25.2%
Total votes 259,766 100%
Republican hold

District 7

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Travis J. Hutson 212,577 61.7%
Democratic Heather Hunter 131,763 38.3%
Independent Richard Dembinsky (Write in) 13 0.0%
Total votes 344,353 100%
Republican hold

District 9

2020 Florida's 9th State Senate district debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Jason Brodeur Patricia Sigman
1 Oct. 6, 2020 WESH Greg Fox YouTube P P
Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jason Brodeur 141,544 50.3%
Democratic Patricia Sigman 133,900 47.6%
Independent Jestine Iannotti 5,787 2.1%
Total votes 281,231 100%
Republican hold

District 11

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Randolph Bracy 147,244 65.0%
Republican Joshua Eli Adams 79,224 35.0%
Total votes 226,468 100%
Democratic hold

District 13

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Linda Stewart 152,769 60.6%
Republican Josh Anderson 99,134 39.4%
Total votes 251,903 100%
Democratic hold

District 15

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Victor M. Torres 180,185 57.1%
Republican Louis T. Minnis 123,153 39.0%
Independent Mike James 12,207 3.9%
Total votes 315,545 100%
Democratic hold

District 17

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Debbie Mayfield 193,560 60.6%
Democratic Scot Fretwell 114,515 35.9%
Independent Phillip Snyder 11,323 3.5%
Total votes 319,398 100%
Republican hold

District 19

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Darryl Ervin Rouson 174,343 68.7%
Independent Christina Paylan 79,463 31.3%
Total votes 253,806 100%
Democratic hold

District 20

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Danny Burgess 141,607 54.8%
Democratic Kathy Lewis 116,685 45.2%
Total votes 258,292 100%
Republican hold

District 21

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jim Boyd 191,673 61.0%
Democratic Anthony "Tony" Eldon 122,480 39.0%
Total votes 314,153 100%
Republican hold

District 23

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Joe Gruters 188,126 57.7%
Democratic Katherine Norman 131,491 40.3%
Independent Robert Kaplan 6,696 2.1%
Total votes 326,313 100%
Republican hold

District 25

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Gayle Harrell 168,063 58.7
Democratic Corinna Robinson 118,211 41.3
Total votes 286,274 100.0
Republican hold

District 27

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ray Rodrigues 176,954 60.5%
Democratic Rachel Brown 115,537 39.5%
Total votes 292,491 100%
Republican hold

District 29

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tina Polsky 156,441 55.7%
Republican Brian Norton 124,502 44.3%
Total votes 280,943 100%
Democratic hold

District 31

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Lori Berman 156,495 62.2%
Republican Tami Donnally 95,019 37.8%
Total votes 251,514 100%
Democratic hold

District 35

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Shevrin "Shev" Jones 188,942 99.7%
Independent Darien Hill (Write in) 590 0.3%
Total votes 189,532 100%
Democratic hold

District 37

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ileana Garcia 104,630 48.53%
Democratic José Javier Rodríguez (Incumbent) 104,598 48.51%
Independent Alex Rodriguez 6,382 2.96%
Total votes 215,610 100%
Republican gain from Democratic

District 39

Florida 2020 Senate Election
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ana Maria Rodriguez 123,556 55.6%
Democratic Javier E. Fernandez 95,135 42.8%
Independent Celso D. Alfonso 3,639 1.6%
Total votes 222,330 100%
Republican hold

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Not yet released
  3. ^ Not yet released

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Fitzhagen's campaign
  2. ^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Ausley prior to the sampling period
  3. ^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Sigman prior to the sampling period
  4. ^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Javier Rodriguez prior to the sampling period
  5. ^ The Florida Senate Victory Fund and the FDLCC supported Fernandez prior to the sampling period

See also

References

  1. ^ "Florida State Senate elections, 2020". Ballotpedia. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
  2. ^ "Florida 2020 General Election".
  3. ^ Martin, Jason Garcia, Annie (December 2, 2021). "Florida Power & Light execs worked closely with consultants behind 'ghost' candidate scheme, records reveal | Special Report". orlandosentinel.com. Retrieved December 2, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  4. ^ Fox, Greg (August 5, 2021). "Deception and dark money: Court documents show scheme of ghost candidates in Florida senate races". WESH. Retrieved December 2, 2021.
  5. ^ Harper, Mark. "Florida Senate 'ghost' candidate Alex Rodriguez faces $20,000 ethics fine". Daytona Beach News-Journal Online. Retrieved December 2, 2021.
  6. ^ Call, James. "Barack Obama weighs in on Florida Senate races; endorses Ausley for North Florida seat". Tallahassee Democrat. USA Today Network. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
  7. ^ Wilson, Kirby. "Florida Democrat: I can lift Biden and flip state Senate. Why won't my party help?". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
  8. ^ "Florida 2016 pres-by-sd.xlsx". Google Docs (Cited in Tampa Bay Times). Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved September 26, 2020.
  9. ^ "Election Results Data Extract Utility". results.elections.myflorida.com. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
  10. ^ "Voter Registration - By County and Party - Division of Elections - Florida Department of State". dos.myflorida.com. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
  11. ^ "October Overview: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
  12. ^ St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  13. ^ Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen
  14. ^ Remington Research Group/Heather Fitzhagen
  15. ^ St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  16. ^ St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  17. ^ St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  18. ^ ALG Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC
  19. ^ St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  20. ^ St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  21. ^ GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC
  22. ^ St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics
  23. ^ SEA Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC
  24. ^ GQR Research/Florida Senate Victory Fund/FDLCC
  25. ^ Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC
  26. ^ Tyson Group/Let's Preserve the American Dream PAC
  27. ^ "2020 Florida State Senate Election Results". results.elections.myflorida.com.
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