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2024 California's 45th congressional district election

For broader coverage of this topic, see California's 45th congressional district.

2024 California's 45th congressional district election
← 2022 November 5, 2024 2026 →
Reporting
99%
as of Nov. 24, 7:00 PM PST
 
Candidate Derek Tran Michelle Steel
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 157,427 156,882
Percentage 50.09% 49.91%
U.S. Representative before election

Michelle Steel
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

TBD

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The 2024 California's 45th congressional district election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 45th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries.

Based in Orange County and Los Angeles County, the 45th district contains all of Fountain Valley, Westminster, Garden Grove, Cypress, Buena Park, Cerritos, Artesia, La Palma, Placentia, Hawaiian Gardens, Los Alamitos, and Rossmoor, as well as portions of Brea, Lakewood, Fullerton, and Yorba Linda.[1] One-third of all registered voters in the district are Asian American, with Vietnamese Americans alone comprising 16% of the district's voters.[2]

The incumbent is Republican Michelle Steel, who was re-elected with 52.4% of the vote in 2022. Steel, who is Korean American, was first elected in 2020, unseating incumbent Democrat Harley Rouda. She previously served as a member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors and the California State Board of Equalization.

The race is expected to be highly competitive as it is a purple suburban district. Both House Democrats and House Republicans have listed California's 45th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election.[3][4] Joe Biden carried this district by a 6% margin in the 2020 presidential election.[5] Steel is one of 17 House Republicans representing a Biden-won district.[6] At the local level, however, the 45th district has trended Republican, voting for Republicans in every state race in 2022.[7]

The election is currently one of the closest U.S. House races of 2024. As of November 25, 2024, Tran is leading Steel by only 0.18%.

Primary election

Candidates

Kim Nguyen-Penaloza

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Cheyenne Hunt (D)
Individuals
Organizations
Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D)
U.S. representatives
State senators
State assemblymembers
Municipal officials
Local officials
Individuals
Party chapters
Labor unions
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Michelle Steel (R)
U.S. representatives
Municipal officials
Local officials
Organizations
Party chapters
Derek Tran (D)
U.S. representatives
Municipal officials
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Michelle Steel (R) $8,971,455[a] $5,675,115 $3,752,876
Cheyenne Hunt (D) $389,534[b] $254,544 $134,990
Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D) $359,909 $357,405 $2,503
Aditya Pai (D) $304,926[c] $276,752 $10,396
Derek Tran (D) $4,380,401 $3,423,836 $956,564
Source: Federal Election Commission[66]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Cheyenne
Hunt (D) 		Kim Nguyen-
Penaloza (D) 		Aditya
Pai (D) 		Michelle
Steel (R) 		Derek
Tran (D) 		Other Undecided
RMG Research[A] November 14–19, 2023 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 4% 10% 1% 28% – 9%[e] 47%
Tulchin Research[B] November 13–19, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.9% 6% 10% 2% 39% 11% – 32%

Results

Results by county and municipality
  Steel
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  No votes / no data
2024 California's 45th congressional district primary[67]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Michelle Steel (incumbent) 78,020 54.9
Democratic Derek Tran 22,544 15.9
Democratic Kim Nguyen-Penaloza 22,178 15.6
Democratic Cheyenne Hunt 11,971 8.4
Democratic Aditya Pai 7,398 5.2
Total votes 142,111 100.0

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[68] Tossup September 6, 2024
Inside Elections[69] Tossup October 18, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[70] Lean R November 4, 2024
Elections Daily[71] Lean R November 4, 2024
CNalysis[72] Tilt D (flip) November 4, 2024

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Michelle
Steel (R) 		Derek
Tran (D) 		Undecided
Normington Petts (D)[C] October 13-15, 2024 400 (V) ± 4.4% 45% 48% 7%
American Viewpoint (R)[D][better source needed] October 8-10, 2024 400 (V) ± 4.9% 45% 41% 14%
USC/CSU September 14–21, 2024 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 48% 5%
Tulchin Research (D)[B] September 14–19, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% 8%
Normington Petts (D)[C] July 29–31, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 47% 6%
Tulchin Research[B] May 23 – June 2, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 41% 17%

Post-primary endorsements

Michelle Steel (R)
Newspapers
Organizations
Derek Tran (D)
Executive Branch Officials
U.S. representatives
Newspapers
Organizations

Results[86]

2024 California's 45th congressional district election[87]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Michelle Steel (incumbent) 156,882 49.91%
Democratic Derek Tran 157,427 50.09%
Total votes 314,309 100.0%

Notes

  1. ^ $1,910,000 of this total was self-funded by Steel
  2. ^ $107,000 of this total was self-funded by Hunt
  3. ^ $33,833 of this total was self-funded by Pai
  4. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 8%; "Would not vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits
  2. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Tran's campaign
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Steel's campaign and the NRCC

References

  1. ^ "Our District". United States House of Representatives Page of Congresswoman Steel. January 3, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  2. ^ Chan, Melissa (November 9, 2022). "Why a Southern California congressional race hinges on Asian American voters". NPR. The Morning Edition. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  3. ^ Solender, Andrew (November 22, 2022). "House Democrats eye lost ground in 2024". Axios. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  4. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (February 3, 2023). "McCarthy launches 'Protect the House 2024' as he aims to expand the GOP majority". Fox News. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  5. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts". Daily Kos Elections. September 29, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  6. ^ Kondik, Kyle (December 1, 2022). "The New Crossover Members of the House". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  7. ^ "Statement of Vote November 8, 2022 – General Election" (PDF). California Secretary of State. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
  8. ^ a b Kang, Hanna (April 4, 2023). "25-year-old OC TikTok influencer could become the next Gen Z member of Congress". The Orange County Register. Lance Trover, Steel's campaign manager, said, 'Southern California voters know her record of fighting for lower taxes, standing up to the Chinese Communist Party and ensuring everyone has a shot at the American dream,' maintaining she will be reelected in 2024.
  9. ^ Marans, Daniel (October 2, 2023). "Democrat Derek Tran Announces Bid For Key California House Seat". Huffington Post. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  10. ^ Singer, Jeff (January 25, 2023). "Orange County Democrat launches bid to beat Rep. Michelle Steel in competitive seat Biden carried". The Daily Kos. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  11. ^ Kang, Hanna (April 10, 2023). "Third Democrat jumps into race in attempt to flip Michelle Steel's seat in 2024". The Orange County Register. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  12. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (October 13, 2023). "CA-45 CANDIDATE JIMMY PHAM SUSPENDS CAMPAIGN FOR CONGRESS". The Liberal OC. Retrieved October 14, 2023.
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  14. ^ Kang, Hanna (May 26, 2023). "The race for Rep. Katie Porter's open congressional seat is growing". The Orange County Register. Retrieved May 28, 2023.
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  29. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (February 20, 2024). "California Federation of Teachers and American Federation of Teachers Endorse Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  30. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (December 6, 2023). "2.2 Million Member Strong California Labor Federation Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
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  34. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (November 30, 2023). "Laborers' International Union of North America (LIUNA) Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 1, 2023.
  35. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (October 6, 2023). "Service Employees International Union (SEIU) California Endorses Kim Nguyen for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved October 7, 2023.
  36. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (February 14, 2024). "Western States Regional Council of Carpenters Endorses Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
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  38. ^ Chmielewski, Dan (December 5, 2023). "California Young Democrats (CYD) Endorse Kim Nguyen-Penaloza for Congress". The Liberal OC. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
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  40. ^ College Democrats of CSUF [@csufdemocrats] (February 13, 2024). "We have an endorsement: Kim Nguyen-Penaloza". Instagram. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  41. ^ "Election Center". Equality California. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
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Official campaign websites
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