2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
County results
Municipality results Ayotte: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%Craig: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% >90%
The 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of New Hampshire . Republican former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte and Democratic former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig sought their first term in office. Ayotte won the election, and will succeed incumbent Republican Chris Sununu , who did not seek election to a fifth term.[ 1] Along with neighboring Vermont , this race was one of two Republican-held governorships up for election in 2024 in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election .
Primary elections took place on September 10, 2024.[ 2] Ayotte won the Republican nomination with 63% of the vote over former state senate president Chuck Morse and Craig won the Democratic nomination with 48% of the vote over state executive councilor Cinde Warmington .
Republican Kelly Ayotte won the election by 9.34%, with the state concurrently voting for Kamala Harris in the 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire .
Background
New Hampshire is a slightly blue state in New England , with a pattern of split-ticket voting . Incumbent Republican governor Chris Sununu was narrowly elected in the 2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election , and easily won re-election in the 2020 New Hampshire gubernatorial election . This was despite Donald Trump losing the state in both 2016 (by 0.37%) and 2020 (by 7.35%). Republican gubernatorial nominee Kelly Ayotte narrowly lost re-election in the 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire by 0.14%.
This race was widely considered a tossup, due to the incumbent retiring, the state's pattern of ticket splitting, and the concurrent 2024 presidential election .[ 3]
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Shaun Fife, farmer[ 5]
Robert McClory, welder[ 6]
Richard McMenamon, auto repair shop owner and candidate for governor in 2022 [ 7]
Chuck Morse , former president of the New Hampshire Senate , former acting governor, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 [ 8]
Frank Staples, transitional living program owner[ 6]
Declined
Endorsements
Kelly Ayotte
U.S. senators
Governors
State legislators
Individuals
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of September 4, 2024
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on hand
Kelly Ayotte (R)
$7,301,915
$5,499,318
$1,677,858
Chuck Morse (R)
$1,513,599
$1,472,846
$40,753
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System[ 21]
Debates
Polling
Hypothetical polling
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ a]
Margin of error
Kelly Ayotte
Robert Burns
Frank Edelblut
Chuck Morse
Other
Undecided
Emerson College
August 9–11, 2023
498 (RV)
± 4.9%
45%
3%
4%
9%
3%
35%
co/efficient [ B]
June 14–16, 2023
904 (LV)
± 3.25%
69%
–
9%
22%
–
–
Results
Results by county:
Ayotte secured a major[ 22] victory over Morse, winning almost two thirds of the vote. She performed the best in Sullivan County in the southwest of the state, earning 74% of the vote. Conversely, she recorded her worst result in Rockingham County in the southeast, receiving just 54.7% of the vote.[ 23]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined
Endorsements
Joyce Craig
Governors
U.S. representatives
New Hampshire cabinet officials
Judicial officials
State legislators
Local officials
Party officials
Other officials
Labor unions
Cinde Warmington
Governors
U.S. representatives
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Debates
2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial Democratic primary debate
No.
Date
Host
Moderator
Link
Democratic
Democratic
Democratic
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn
Craig
Warmington
Kiper
1
Sep. 4, 2024
WMUR-TV
Adam Sexton
YouTube
P
P
P
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of August 20, 2024
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on hand
Joyce Craig (D)
$2,976,496
$2,630,738
$342,052
Cinde Warmington (D)
$2,287,849
$2,135,285
$152,564
Jon Kiper (D)
$58,277
$55,985
$1,443
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System[ 21]
Polling
Results
Primary results by county (left) and municipality (right).
30-40%
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
>90%
30-40%
40–50%
50–60%
60–70%
70–80%
80–90%
Third parties and independent candidates
Declared
General election
Predictions
Post-primary endorsements
Fundraising
Campaign finance reports as of November 5, 2024
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash on hand
Kelly Ayotte (R)
$21,005,579
$18,668,848
$2,204,119
Joyce Craig (D)
$7,346,371
$6,827,299
$515,368
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System[ 21]
Polling
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation
Dates administered
Dates updated
Kelly Ayotte (R)
Joyce Craig (D)
Undecided[ e]
Margin
RealClearPolitics
October 21 – November 2, 2024
November 3, 2024
46.8%
44.3%
8.9%
Ayotte +2.5%
270toWin
October 24 – November 3, 2024
November 3, 2024
47.0%
44.0%
9.0%
Ayotte +3.0%
Average
46.9%
44.2%
8.9%
Ayotte +2.7%
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ a]
Margin of error
Kelly Ayotte (R)
Joyce Craig (D)
Others
Undecided
Dartmouth College
November 1–3, 2024
587 (LV)
± 4.0%
40%
58%
2%[ f]
–
University of New Hampshire
October 29 – November 2, 2024
2,814 (LV)
± 1.9%
48%
44%
1%[ g]
6%
Saint Anselm College
October 28–29, 2024
2,791 (LV)
± 1.9%
49%
46%
2%[ h]
3%
Praecones Analytica [ B]
October 24–26, 2024
622 (RV)
± 3.9%
52%
48%
–
–
Emerson College [ A]
October 21–23, 2024
915 (LV)
± 3.2%
50%
46%
5%[ i]
–
46%
43%
4%[ j]
7%
UMass Lowell/YouGov
October 10–23, 2024
600 (LV)
± 4.4%
45%
43%
4%[ k]
8%
Dartmouth College
October 5–18, 2024
2,196 (RV)
± 2.1%
46%
51%
3%[ l]
–
UMass Lowell/YouGov
October 2–10, 2024
600 (LV)
± 4.8%
42%
41%
4%[ m]
14%
Saint Anslem College
October 1–2, 2024
2,104 (LV)
± 2.1%
47%
44%
3%[ n]
6%
University of New Hampshire
September 12–16, 2024
1,695 (LV)
± 2.4%
46%
47%
1%[ o]
5%
Saint Anslem College
September 11–12, 2024
2,241 (LV)
± 2.1%
46%
43%
5%[ p]
6%
September 10, 2024
Primary elections held
Emerson College [ A]
November 10–13, 2023
917 (RV)
± 3.3%
43%
40%
—
17%
Emerson College
August 9–11, 2023
837 (RV)
± 3.4%
46%
37%
—
17%
Hypothetical polling
Kelly Ayotte vs. Cinde Warmington
Poll source
Date(s) administered
Sample size[ a]
Margin of error
Kelly Ayotte (R)
CindeWarmington (D)
Undecided
Emerson College [ A]
November 10–13, 2023
917 (RV)
± 3.3%
44%
37%
19%
Emerson College
August 9–11, 2023
837 (RV)
± 3.4%
47%
34%
19%
Results
Notes
^ a b c d e Key: A – all adults RV – registered voters LV – likely voters V – unclear
^ Shaun Fife, Robert McClory, and Richard McMenamon with 0%
^ Jon Kiper with 8%
^ Jon Kiper with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ "Another Candidate" with 2%
^ Villee (L) with 1%
^ "Someone else" with 2%
^ Villee (L) with 5%
^ Villee (L) with 4%
^ Villee (L) with 3%; "Another Candidate" with 1%
^ "Another Candidate" with 3%
^ Stephen Ville with 3% and "Another candidate" with 1%
^ "Someone else" with 3%
^ "Another candidate" with 1%; Stephen Villee (L) with 0%
^ Someone else with 5%
Partisan clients
^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by WHDH-TV
^ a b c Poll sponsored by the NH Journal
^ Poll sponsored by Warmington's campaign
References
^ "Chris Sununu will not run for re-election for fifth term as New Hampshire governor" . CBS News . July 19, 2023. Retrieved July 19, 2023 .
^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates" . NCSL . Retrieved August 6, 2023 .
^ "2024 Governor Race ratings" . The Cook Political Report . Retrieved July 24, 2023 .
^ "Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte wins GOP primary for New Hampshire governor" . The Hill . September 11, 2024. Retrieved September 11, 2024 .
^ Sexton, Adam (June 5, 2024). "Republican Shaun Fife files to run for New Hampshire governor" . WMUR-TV . Retrieved June 5, 2024 .
^ a b "Democratic cumulative filing as of 06/12/24" (PDF) . Office of the Secretary of State – Election Division.
^ "2024 Election Details" . New Hampshire Secretary of State. June 5, 2024.
^ Tasolides, Justin (July 19, 2023). "N.H. GOP Gov. Sununu says he will not seek fifth term" . Spectrum News . Retrieved July 19, 2023 .
^ Porter, Steven (April 20, 2023). "Who will run for New Hampshire governor if Chris Sununu runs for president?" . Boston Globe .
^ Kashinsky, Lisa (August 3, 2023). "Scott Brown isn't done yet" . Politico . Retrieved August 3, 2023 .
^ Dawg, Jay (April 4, 2023). "Edelblut Considering A Run For Governor" . The Pulse of NH .
^ Edelblut, Frank (September 3, 2023). "America the beautiful. New Hampshire the crown jewel" . New Hampshire Union Leader . Retrieved September 3, 2023 . I have decided that I will not be running in this cycle.
^ "Chris Sununu will not run for re-election for fifth term as New Hampshire governor" . CBS News . July 19, 2023. Retrieved July 19, 2023 .
^ a b Vakil, Caroline (August 7, 2024). "Sununu backs Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire GOP gubernatorial primary" . The Hill . Retrieved August 7, 2024 .
^ a b Wagner, John (July 24, 2023). "Former GOP senator Kelly Ayotte to run for New Hampshire governor" . The Washington Post . Retrieved July 24, 2023 .
^ Tenser, Phil (July 24, 2023). "Kelly Ayotte announces 2024 campaign for New Hampshire governor" . WCVB-TV 5. Retrieved September 28, 2023 .
^ Sylvia, Andrew (September 8, 2023). "Levasseur, Manchester's GOP State Reps, endorse Ayotte" . Manchester Ink Link . Retrieved September 28, 2023 .
^ Robidoux, Carol (August 22, 2023). "Ayotte endorsed by Merrimack Republican delegation" . Manchester Ink Link . Retrieved September 28, 2023 .
^ Bolduc, Don (June 26, 2024). "BOLDUC: Why I'm Endorsing Ayotte for Governor" . NH Journal .
^ "Rico Petrocelli endorses Ayotte" . November 28, 2023. Retrieved November 29, 2023 .
^ a b c "Candidates and Candidate Committees" . New Hampshire Campaign Finance System .
^ Yurow, Jeremy; Cullen, Margie (September 10, 2024). "Kelly Ayotte, Joyce Craig advance to November showdown in New Hampshire governor race" . USA Today. Retrieved September 13, 2024 .
^ "New Hampshire Governor election results" . Politico . Retrieved September 13, 2024 .
^ a b "2024 State Primary Election Results" . New Hampshire Secretary of State .
^ Sexton, Adam (July 11, 2023). "Manchester Mayor Craig officially launches campaign for governor" . WMUR . Retrieved July 11, 2023 .
^ Schinella, Tony (November 24, 2023). "Seacoast Restauranter Becomes Third NH Democrat To Run For Governor" . Patch Media . Retrieved December 7, 2023 .
^ Sexton, Adam (June 1, 2023). "NH Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington launches campaign for governor" . WMUR . Retrieved June 1, 2023 .
^ Wolf, Stephen (July 20, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/20" . Daily Kos . Retrieved July 20, 2023 . Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster quickly ruled out running for governor next year following GOP Gov. Chris Sununu's Wednesday announcement that he wouldn't seek reelection
^ DeWitt, Ethan (November 14, 2022). "After six-year battle to oust Sununu, Democrats fall short again" . New Hampshire Bulletin .
^ Porter, Steven (April 20, 2023). "Who will run for New Hampshire governor if Chris Sununu runs for president?" . The Boston Globe . Retrieved July 19, 2023 .
^ Porter, Steve (May 1, 2023). "Outgoing mayor of Manchester, N.H., launches exploratory committee for 2024 governor's race" . Boston Globe . Former state senator Dr. Tom Sherman, who ran for governor in 2022 and who some had said could run again, told the Globe on Monday that he won't run for governor in 2024.
^ a b c d Steinhauser, Paul (May 1, 2023). "Craig launches gubernatorial exploratory committee" . Concord Monitor . Retrieved June 3, 2023 .
^ a b c d e f g h i j k Robidoux, Carol (August 20, 2023). "Craig campaign announces 160 new endorsements" . Manchester Ink Link . Retrieved September 28, 2023 .
^ a b c Sylvia, Andrew (October 27, 2023). "Craig endorsed by Dr. Tom Sherman" . Manchester Ink Link . Retrieved October 27, 2023 .
^ Landrigan, Kevin (January 29, 2024). "Donchess backs Craig for governor" . UnionLeader.com . Retrieved January 29, 2024 .
^ Robidoux, Carol (October 3, 2023). "Nashua Teachers' Union Endorses Joyce Craig for Governor" . Manchester Ink Link . Retrieved October 3, 2023 .
^ Landrigan, Kevin (August 31, 2023). "Craig endorsed by Teamsters Local 633 in gubernatorial race" . New Hampshire Union Leader . Retrieved September 28, 2023 .
^ "Howard Dean endorses Cinde Warmington" . Manchester Ink Link . February 10, 2024. Retrieved February 10, 2024 .
^ Bookman, Todd (June 1, 2023). "Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington announces campaign for NH governor" . New Hampshire Public Radio . Retrieved June 2, 2023 .
^ a b c d e f Scacchi, Mitchell (June 1, 2023). "Exec Councilor Warmington Enters Gov's Race, Likely to Face Craig in Primary" . New Hampshire Journal . Retrieved June 2, 2023 .
^ a b Sylvia, Andrew (June 1, 2023). "Warmington announces gubernatorial run" . Ink Link . Retrieved November 15, 2023 .
^ "NH State Employees Throw Support Behind Cinde Warmington in Democratic Gubernatorial Primary – SEA/SEIU DEV" . SEA/SEIU DEV – . February 29, 2024. Retrieved March 1, 2024 .
^ NH Secretary of State's Office. "DECLARATIONS OF INTENT FILED – 2024" (PDF) . Retrieved July 14, 2024 . Governor Stephen Villee
^ "2024 Governor Race ratings" . The Cook Political Report . Retrieved July 24, 2023 .
^ "Gubernatorial Ratings" . Inside Elections . Retrieved July 24, 2023 .
^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings" . Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved July 24, 2023 .
^ "2024 Governor Races" . www.realclearpolling.com . Retrieved July 16, 2024 .
^ "Election Ratings" . Elections Daily . July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023 .
^ "Governor Forecasts" . CNalysis . Retrieved August 17, 2024 .
^ Kelly, Laura (September 10, 2024). "DGA Statement on Joyce Craig's Primary Victory in New Hampshire" . DGA . Democratic Governors Association. Retrieved September 18, 2024 .
^ Mackler, Jessica (September 16, 2024). "EMILYs List Endorses Joyce Craig for Governor of New Hampshire" . EMILYs List . Retrieved September 18, 2024 .
^ "Planned Parenthood NH Action Fund PAC Endorses Governor and Executive Council Candidates Who Will Protect and Expand Access to Reproductive Health Care" . Planned Parenthood New Hampshire Action Fund. September 12, 2024. Retrieved September 18, 2024 .
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